UFC · resolved market
O/U 1.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63a83e65fd109f32a7012e0a8b099545e86915423acc81acf8ab0fd5688282da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7dbc…d4adbacked Over | 54c | 4,728$2,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,549.76 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x746e…68cabacked Under | 42c | 3,750$1,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 58c | 3,750$2,193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,192.5 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda39…c640backed Under | 46c | 3,724$1,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,011.03 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 1,179$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.88 | 203 | 48.3%98 W · 105 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc387…5a97backed Under | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…d336backed Under | 46c | 532.61$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.61 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af1…1901backed Over | 54c | 500.09$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.3 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.26per pick | 62cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Under | 46c | 267.27$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.33 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…2504backed Under | 49c | 168.57$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 78 | 42.3%33 W · 45 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 46c | 114$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 422 | 54.3%229 W · 193 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43a8…e9d9backed Under | 46c | 106.37$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.44 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 97.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.79 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 46c | 95.65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed Under | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f6…1c14backed Over | 54c | 78.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 53c | 71.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6389…17a0backed Under | 45c | 70.1$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff20…fa2bbacked Under | 46c | 63.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb42…176ebacked Under | 47c | 63.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.56 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.6wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…1d99backed Under | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…9e5fbacked Over | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Under | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ea…7810backed Under | 46c | 48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 41.37$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 171 | 50.9%87 W · 84 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4f…0447backed Over | 54c | 37.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0789…f7adbacked Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 58cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf02…aaefbacked Over | 55c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…7293backed Over | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c34…b7adbacked Over | 59c | 24.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…6c57backed Over | 55c | 20.7$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 1.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Bruno Lopes vs. Diyar Nurgozhay (Light Heavyweight, Main Card)Diyar Nurgozhay won
- Will Diyar Nurgozhay win by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?Yes won
- Will the fight be won by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.