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Euroleague · resolved market

Zalgiris Kaunas vs. Fenerbahce

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Fenerbahceof Zalgiris Kaunas, Fenerbahce
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,932
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,932 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 247 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Euroleague
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x37e4…c991backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c25,763$13,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,790.25812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.33per pick45cpaid-75.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ebb…cb1abacked Fenerbahce49c18,306$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,305.91683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick63cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x31d1…cf6fbacked Fenerbahce50c13,864$6,915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9491100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Zalgiris Kaunas53c6,732$3,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,561.182055%11 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-21.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c6,463$3,361 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.991060%6 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+25.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Fenerbahce48c6,454$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,378.0834344.3%152 W · 191 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x482d…ba5ebacked Fenerbahce42c4,324$1,825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,498.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+18.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1b6…e0a0backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Zalgiris Kaunas24c3,588$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$852.435234.7%122 W · 230 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Fenerbahce48c3,336$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,735.7643543.7%190 W · 245 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc61d…3933backed Fenerbahce50c3,219$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,610.78936%32 W · 57 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Zalgiris Kaunas53c3,171$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,680.492045%9 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-29.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c3,065$1,533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,532.5922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.30per pick52cpaid-48%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdd23…387ebacked Fenerbahce46c2,499$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,349.623063.3%19 W · 11 L+5.6wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+24%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41f0…3eebbacked Fenerbahce48c2,295$1,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,193.393345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Fenerbahce61c2,239$1,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.9131651.6%163 W · 153 L+14.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cea…03d4backed Fenerbahce48c2,122$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,107.621353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1b3…501cbacked Zalgiris Kaunas51c2,100$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.9930%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed Fenerbahce56c2,016$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.731421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ae7…1eebbacked Fenerbahce51c2,003$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+94.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67c4…f0a4backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c1,959$984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Fenerbahce58c1,698$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e33…afb3backed Fenerbahce64c1,564$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.0813650%68 W · 68 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x48b8…4b69backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c1,505$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$752.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Zalgiris Kaunas49c1,432$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.4613147.3%62 W · 69 L+6.2wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb693…cfc9backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c1,120$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.363060%18 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Fenerbahce65c1,113$728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.132157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Zalgiris Kaunas25c1,072$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.7137052.7%195 W · 175 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Fenerbahce48c1,036$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.0211455.3%63 W · 51 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Zalgiris Kaunas38c1,034$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.942030%6 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd65…3e60backed Zalgiris Kaunas47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4709756.7%55 W · 42 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1316…48a4backed Fenerbahce49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5103855.3%21 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Fenerbahce50c999.29$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$503.6875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick45cpaid+60.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x39c6…0ac1backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c981$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.55949.2%29 W · 30 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x476d…0c42backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c911.48$456 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.74366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Fenerbahce46c897.77$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.366747.8%32 W · 35 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas46c868.75$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.162532%8 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Zalgiris Kaunas54c842.81$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.3413046.2%60 W · 70 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Fenerbahce71c786.66$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2613545.9%62 W · 73 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Fenerbahce46c713.65$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.375230.8%16 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Zalgiris Kaunas55c700.06$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.9136939.8%147 W · 222 L+1.7wins0.00per pick39cpaid-22.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Fenerbahce46c670.68$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.177138%27 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5c…f951backed Fenerbahce49c600.66$295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.86666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Fenerbahce65c519.91$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.8112454%67 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Fenerbahce47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2653345.5%15 W · 18 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-3.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6c66…c204backed Zalgiris Kaunas51c499.99$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Fenerbahce44c499.99$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5df3…bb17backed Zalgiris Kaunas51c494.02$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505450%27 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd7…ac41backed Fenerbahce49c440$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f0c…5292backed Zalgiris Kaunas8c437.5$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35540%2 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+23.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c06…aa42backed Fenerbahce47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.531136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-23.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Fenerbahce47c422.72$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.041650%8 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4042…0bdabacked Fenerbahce48c416.39$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49c8…3c52backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c408.95$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.313342.4%14 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+10.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x620f…4288backed Fenerbahce53c375.85$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+136.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Fenerbahce51c352.94$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.948247.6%39 W · 43 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3048…057fbacked Fenerbahce50c349.96$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.98933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Zalgiris Kaunas53c339.09$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.725541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Fenerbahce47c336.61$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.235752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0764…41d1backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c321.7$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.851145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Zalgiris Kaunas68c317$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.255248.1%25 W · 27 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Fenerbahce51c303.92$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.926237.1%23 W · 39 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas53c301.91$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.01540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49bb…a0dfbacked Zalgiris Kaunas41c282.5$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.5140%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Zalgiris Kaunas52c273.04$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.661010%1 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick32cpaid-66.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed Fenerbahce50c266.96$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.5821535.8%77 W · 138 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Fenerbahce47c236.97$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.621947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…8077backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c234.81$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Zalgiris Kaunas29c233.11$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0214037.9%53 W · 87 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5839…3fa8backed Fenerbahce47c210.64$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.641080%8 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick62cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc46e…9ed8backed Fenerbahce49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca43…9d5cbacked Zalgiris Kaunas51c203.27$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Fenerbahce47c202.13$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.132751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a88…3dadbacked Fenerbahce49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46f3…a7dbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Zalgiris Kaunas39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick26cpaid+17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas50c197.98$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.6710736.4%39 W · 68 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4502…473bbacked Zalgiris Kaunas37c196.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f9f…2144backed Zalgiris Kaunas51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ff…d56cbacked Fenerbahce51c196.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.083050%15 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe549…ea83backed Fenerbahce52c195.42$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.31per pick49cpaid+85.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf25c…a27dbacked Zalgiris Kaunas52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Fenerbahce47c182.79$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.221258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bc0…af1abacked Fenerbahce47c170.78$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.781421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick41cpaid-35%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7847…4007backed Fenerbahce59c169.63$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.63250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d8…138ebacked Zalgiris Kaunas54c166.67$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6e…9bc5backed Fenerbahce47c165.38$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.65540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d05…f729backed Zalgiris Kaunas50c162.24$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.124131.7%13 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-18.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5ff1…c554backed Fenerbahce47c161.7$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+41.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8372…01e6backed Fenerbahce62c160$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.982075%15 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+12.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19b…1613backed Fenerbahce51c156.86$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Fenerbahce54c146.68$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.7714447.9%69 W · 75 L+8.2wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc254…c435backed Zalgiris Kaunas42c145.6$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabe0…5adbbacked Zalgiris Kaunas65c142.69$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a67…52edbacked Fenerbahce49c142.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.353053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf310…1278backed Fenerbahce55c129.29$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa4c…c44fbacked Fenerbahce47c119.9$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.84366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e39…fe16backed Fenerbahce28c118.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d9…99b0backed Fenerbahce50c111.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4c5…c8c1backed Fenerbahce46c110.99$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.943775.7%28 W · 9 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick67cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.