TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,464,530
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,452,334

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,464,530 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 332 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x91ee…c5b8backed Yes28c1,123,483$317,768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805,714.59475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick51cpaid+74.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed No72c468,000$336,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336,959.991540%6 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked No72c144,365$103,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,466.821,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked No71c123,000$87,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87,329.99450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57cd…a0fbbacked No72c97,563$70,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70,197.362941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+26%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No29c74,529$21,358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,357.883,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9572…0633backed No72c59,403$42,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42,770.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No71c50,000$35,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,5001428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No72c41,428$29,868 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,867.521,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes26c39,131$10,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28,956.837255.6%40 W · 32 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Yes28c27,409$7,699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,710.286761.2%41 W · 26 L+6.1wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+22.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5257…3e2abacked No71c20,000$14,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,200475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed No71c18,000$12,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,7806251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No71c15,385$10,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,923.343743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed No71c15,000$10,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,650862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Yes28c13,393$3,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,642.861650%8 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73c5…2f80backed No24c13,066$3,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,197.316051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed No49c11,081$5,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,393.4228345.2%128 W · 155 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No72c10,953$7,884 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,883.7569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed No73c9,536$6,958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,957.7220845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed No18c8,268$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,491.2948141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes53c7,571$3,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,584.982540%10 W · 15 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked No72c7,050$5,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,041.492441.7%10 W · 14 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed No72c6,857$4,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,933.983056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5f…6bfebacked No72c6,838$4,923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,923.06540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed No71c6,688$4,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,774.7326445.5%120 W · 144 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No50c6,514$3,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,234.132,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked No38c6,066$2,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,321.874264.3%27 W · 15 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No72c6,000$4,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3205461.1%33 W · 21 L+5.5wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+22.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked No72c4,874$3,499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,499.429459.6%56 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed No27c4,173$1,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,114.1343532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e7…0365backed No74c4,093$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.821729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.4wins-0.26per pick55cpaid-56%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x70d8…a237backed Yes29c4,000$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,839.812857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5eb…93bfbacked No54c3,677$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2b8…b908backed No72c3,600$2,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,592333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed No72c3,533$2,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.476549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a26…1851backed No54c3,489$1,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9001346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed No72c3,456$2,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,489.067443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x374a…03edbacked No74c3,438$2,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,543.835843.1%25 W · 33 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x97f9…0aebbacked No73c3,095$2,259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,259.353141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed No72c3,029$2,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,184.812050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Yes53c3,019$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.961040%4 W · 6 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed No72c3,010$2,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,17429855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d4e…6478backed No26c2,892$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.49666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+37.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a6…d584backed No74c2,800$2,072 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0726744.8%30 W · 37 L-4.9wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes28c2,657$755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,902.097538.7%29 W · 46 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-9.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed No1c2,584$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.56232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ae5…6079backed No72c2,502$1,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,811.191070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+42.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed No72c2,400$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7285944.1%26 W · 33 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-14.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc66a…ed6abacked Yes33c2,374$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,586.582268.2%15 W · 7 L+3.6wins+0.16per pick52cpaid+37%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked No72c2,299$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,661.0738646.9%181 W · 205 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed No48c2,216$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,071.27750.6%39 W · 38 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4658…4131backed No72c2,083$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Yes50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.4wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+28.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca89…7bc4backed No74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4802948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf88f…c334backed No71c2,000$1,420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,42050%0 W · 5 L-3.2wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes26c1,923$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,423.075349.1%26 W · 27 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+13.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x222b…1a8dbacked Yes61c1,916$1,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$739.534257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed No72c1,833$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.6216846.4%78 W · 90 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7409…65a6backed Yes54c1,678$912 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.645964.4%38 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked No73c1,654$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200.2228755.1%158 W · 129 L+12.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5213…6a35backed Yes26c1,641$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.114045%18 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…0048backed No74c1,600$1,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1845349.1%26 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7418…251fbacked Yes52c1,552$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$752.16761.2%41 W · 26 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked No17c1,548$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.467129.6%21 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14c2…7d55backed No43c1,500$645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6454734%16 W · 31 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Yes29c1,439$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.1314447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No73c1,407$1,030 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,030.0856951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4446…1fd0backed No72c1,389$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002882.1%23 W · 5 L+4.0wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+24.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x005c…a987backed Yes26c1,362$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.7711354.9%62 W · 51 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed No72c1,235$885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$884.884259.5%25 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f0f…e25fbacked Yes28c1,220$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$878.14580%4 W · 1 L+2.4wins+0.49per pick31cpaid+265.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe75e…4b67backed No74c1,200$888 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8886549.2%32 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked No74c1,040$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$769.65745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed No72c1,040$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.796446.9%30 W · 34 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed No72c1,028$740 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$740.276647%31 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No71c1,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7105870.7%41 W · 17 L+10.4wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x8716…57c8backed No72c1,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7858…a5eabacked No73c999.99$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.391861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick49cpaid+35.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes36c999.98$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$639.999150.5%46 W · 45 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No74c942.11$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.165745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed No25c938.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.141,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f28…ff9abacked No72c862.71$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdebb…eedbbacked No64c810.92$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.842737%10 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid+12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaebf…e1cabacked No51c776.37$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.954436.4%16 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed No73c728.93$535 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$534.773658.3%21 W · 15 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbf7…06acbacked No73c686.81$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.37666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+46.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed No74c640$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.65743.9%25 W · 32 L-4.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a49…d9f5backed No27c637.98$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.8740744.5%181 W · 226 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked No74c624$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.767050%35 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked No72c624$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.285646.4%26 W · 30 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked No72c603.43$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.48756.3%49 W · 38 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed No73c601.92$438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked No19c600$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.8814652.7%77 W · 69 L+11.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed No72c574$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.28366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed No72c563$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.3615747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ed3…0a22backed No74c560$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.45451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes54c555.56$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.5617549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed No71c536.7$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.712056.7%68 W · 52 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cb4…4576backed No72c524.19$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.889850%49 W · 49 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.