Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0956ef2a76f5e45b742b17cb4c3bef3983fd969f1d9798d4da482a452912a3ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $44,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 23c | 8,854$2,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,036.43 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 22c | 4,457$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.08 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 77c | 3,000$2,310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690 | 30 | 73.3%22 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x40d0…4415backed No | 77c | 2,368$1,823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.64 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc899…e1fdbacked No | 78c | 2,318$1,808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.93 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked No | 79c | 2,048$1,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.23 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 22c | 1,606$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.34 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 10c | 1,309$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 16c | 1,143$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.09 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 13c | 1,125$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.58 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 77c | 1,020$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.74 | 298 | 55.4%165 W · 133 L | +11.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdabd…6adabacked Yes | 16c | 1,010$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +8.8wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2288…8f5fbacked Yes | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 78c | 835.47$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.8 | 144 | 47.9%69 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked No | 77c | 743.83$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Yes | 22c | 701.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.35 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 80c | 659.1$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.06 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0c…89ccbacked Yes | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 77c | 521.09$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.25 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…b77abacked Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7858…a5eabacked No | 77c | 500$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 77c | 499.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 77c | 428.81$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.63 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x923c…6d03backed Yes | 13c | 400.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…1902backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 79c | 365.99$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.61 | 283 | 45.2%128 W · 155 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e3…f2c9backed No | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b0…9178backed No | 78c | 322.44$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed No | 77c | 317$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.91 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a7…55bebacked Yes | 23c | 260.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92f7…a6c2backed No | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…3b62backed No | 79c | 227.59$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.79 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 10c | 208.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.13per pick | 17cpaid | +193.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 78c | 206$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.32 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1871…59e6backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 51%52 W · 50 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 14c | 199$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005c…a987backed No | 77c | 170.82$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 160.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.26 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf60f…04e3backed No | 78c | 156.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 78c | 150.79$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 78c | 145.9$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 287 | 55.1%158 W · 129 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 12c | 132.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 264 | 45.5%120 W · 144 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 21c | 117.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 79c | 117.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ff…6b66backed Yes | 22c | 104.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe081…1df8backed No | 78c | 101.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 78c | 100.5$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b22…8cd6backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e8…2c0ebacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec8…762abacked Yes | 12c | 94.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacfc…f2fdbacked Yes | 22c | 90.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…feb3backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a44…8985backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…4e8bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3a…e8fdbacked Yes | 24c | 71.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fab…9db1backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 77c | 67$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…3d24backed Yes | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 78c | 48.72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 113 | 38.9%44 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 23c | 46.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…b1cebacked Yes | 23c | 46.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4913…cd0cbacked Yes | 22c | 45.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 45.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0dc…ffadbacked No | 79c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5d…fbb3backed No | 78c | 36.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 78c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6202…8872backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 76c | 27.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4c…ad2fbacked No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -6.3wins | -0.12per pick | 65cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…f624backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78da…07a9backed No | 79c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…13b3backed No | 79c | 23.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c97…013bbacked No | 78c | 23.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 78c | 20.69$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95d…2ebdbacked No | 78c | 16.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…a1f2backed No | 76c | 14.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.58 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked No | 80c | 13.07$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16?No won
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2026-05-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.