UFC · resolved market
Will Shanelle Dyer win by KO or TKO?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb416914995513576e0d3f6b998bf70d7ac5280833c59b0ba9b7953d7e2c6124
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2278…127abacked No | 54c | 839.5$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Yes | 48c | 629.13$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.13 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes | 44c | 462.82$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.18 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x807f…9615backed No | 52c | 416.67$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.67 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Yes | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 56c | 278.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 52c | 263.7$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.03 | 225 | 48%108 W · 117 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Yes | 45c | 209$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.86 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed No | 43c | 191.23$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.24 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed Yes | 45c | 149.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.43 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Yes | 60c | 147.28$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked No | 53c | 62.68$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Yes | 54c | 46.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf96b…9c4cbacked No | 39c | 44.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf18…af99backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed No | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed No | 50c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Yes | 46c | 25.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x873b…343bbacked Yes | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bde…ecbabacked No | 56c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Shanelle Dyer win by KO or TKO?this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Shanelle Dyer won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.