UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86008693ccfbcec7977fd5f5ba62f3dc51bbdf299183fb63fb9bee7c82b8a927
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Shanelle Dyerof Elise Reed, Shanelle Dyer
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,130
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $90,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,130 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Elise Reed | 12c | 23,264$2,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,800.81 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Elise Reed | 11c | 14,954$1,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,644.96 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed Elise Reed | 12c | 7,500$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Elise Reed | 4c | 3,140$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.2 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…e8f9backed Elise Reed | 14c | 2,009$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 20cpaid | +114.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Elise Reed | 12c | 1,971$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.51 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.19per pick | 40cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…7c83backed Elise Reed | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…9324backed Elise Reed | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed Elise Reed | 13c | 999.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61d4…3593backed Elise Reed | 4c | 963.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed Elise Reed | 4c | 875$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Elise Reed | 4c | 832$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8959…68e2backed Elise Reed | 4c | 802.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Elise Reed | 13c | 712.57$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.63 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Elise Reed | 4c | 654.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 25 | 4%1 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -80%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa160…442bbacked Elise Reed | 11c | 649.98$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.5 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x676e…28c5backed Elise Reed | 13c | 630.77$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Elise Reed | 11c | 612.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.33 | 117 | 46.2%54 W · 63 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Elise Reed | 4c | 591.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed Elise Reed | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Elise Reed | 12c | 500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 208 | 37%77 W · 131 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Elise Reed | 3c | 465.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 52 | 30.8%16 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Elise Reed | 17c | 326.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Elise Reed | 12c | 300.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 119 | 37.8%45 W · 74 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Elise Reed | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 331 | 32%106 W · 225 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ba…86fdbacked Elise Reed | 12c | 222$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 250 | 60.4%151 W · 99 L | +13.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd296…084dbacked Elise Reed | 13c | 209.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Elise Reed | 12c | 199.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Elise Reed | 12c | 173.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.82 | 291 | 33.7%98 W · 193 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Elise Reed | 13c | 120.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 215 | 54.4%117 W · 98 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5173…c07cbacked Elise Reed | 14c | 110.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…ea39backed Elise Reed | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 324 | 31.8%103 W · 221 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Elise Reed | 14c | 99.71$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Shanelle Dyer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.