UFC · resolved market
O/U 2.5 Rounds
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x13cb7f79f48d8f7e1b3b840a9a324b56c2a6565f3dcbf8dd7485a3afc0ff8860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f8c…e275backed Over | 45c | 3,010$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.25 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 54c | 1,205$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.51 | 83 | 53%44 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 56c | 1,137$637 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.28 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460 | 84 | 58.3%49 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 47c | 576.35$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.88 | 116 | 57.8%67 W · 49 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x767a…8ac5backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 153 | 48.4%74 W · 79 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Over | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Under | 53c | 376.35$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.88 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.2wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Over | 8c | 357$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Over | 51c | 350$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.43 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbc…1d39backed Over | 44c | 340.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 47c | 305.34$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.51 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 259.16$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.17 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Under | 53c | 257$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.79 | 146 | 49.3%72 W · 74 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 55c | 240$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 46c | 165.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.18 | 420 | 54%227 W · 193 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ae…d117backed Under | 54c | 150$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked Over | 67c | 98$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 53c | 91.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.96 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Under | 33c | 75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 56c | 25.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 366 | 55.2%202 W · 164 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 25.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 242 | 56.2%136 W · 106 L | +20.8wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed Under | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- O/U 2.5 Roundsthis page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Shanelle Dyer won
- Will Shanelle Dyer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.