UFC · resolved market
Fight to Go the Distance?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f4ec3f8dae5584cf1abe4c47051ce3dff80ccf8534c3404b2923f6bddd53bb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,034
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,189
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,034 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 40c | 1,968$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.69 | 152 | 38.2%58 W · 94 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 28c | 1,442$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.55 | 180 | 32.8%59 W · 121 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 36c | 1,036$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.49 | 170 | 50.6%86 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 67c | 1,017$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.85 | 223 | 48.4%108 W · 115 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17b8…d5d1backed Yes | 62c | 992.75$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.98 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ebb…2b75backed No | 35c | 555.54$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.1 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 66c | 221.5$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.31 | 356 | 48.6%173 W · 183 L | +16.8wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc397…bb3bbacked Yes | 34c | 180$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.2 | 125 | 57.6%72 W · 53 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03dc…99e1backed Yes | 29c | 164.2$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 90 | 60%54 W · 36 L | +11.5wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9f…014abacked No | 58c | 152.27$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01f9…964abacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfec…4c6cbacked No | 25c | 98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…fb64backed Yes | 75c | 98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f4…936bbacked Yes | 40c | 97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +5.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked No | 63c | 83.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 34cpaid | +100.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…cd56backed No | 55c | 70.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Yes | 34c | 68.22$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 158 | 39.2%62 W · 96 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5777…f1a7backed Yes | 39c | 64.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd170…a9d9backed No | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa430…c6f9backed No | 63c | 55.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 39c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f58…d93abacked No | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e3…b82ebacked No | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x801f…3c62backed No | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 106 | 60.4%64 W · 42 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Yes | 30c | 35.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fight to Go the Distance?this page
- O/U 0.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsOver won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- UFC Fight Night: Elise Reed vs. Shanelle Dyer (Women's Strawweight, Prelims)Shanelle Dyer won
- Will Shanelle Dyer win by KO or TKO?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.