TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$828,639

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $828,639 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 146 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over53c456,547$243,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243,231.1587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Under46c200,000$92,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107,999.992,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under47c124,225$58,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,855.034,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Under46c40,000$18,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,6002650%13 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Under47c33,763$16,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,750.5166248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under48c29,670$14,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,489.279,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99e0…5052backed Under49c25,000$12,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,849.988839.8%35 W · 53 L-7.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Under48c23,800$11,424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,37630845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under45c21,499$9,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,824.454539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under49c11,814$5,789 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,025.281,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Under48c10,350$4,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,3821,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Under48c9,800$4,704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0969629.2%28 W · 68 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-35.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Under48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6802240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.4wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under47c8,500$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50526544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ef…8cd6backed Under48c8,000$3,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,16043348.5%210 W · 223 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over54c6,655$3,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,596.914,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under48c5,156$2,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7002,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under48c5,100$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,651.9729352.6%154 W · 139 L+14.1wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Under48c4,980$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,589.631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Over55c4,545$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,499.7548352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under46c4,203$1,933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,269.452,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b4…75a0backed Under48c4,167$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,166.678154.3%44 W · 37 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bb…591fbacked Under48c2,560$1,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.230446.7%142 W · 162 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fe…aedfbacked Under46c2,362$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,275.388447.6%40 W · 44 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac1a…f708backed Under48c2,304$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.0619445.4%88 W · 106 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under47c2,237$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,185.795,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over54c2,230$1,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,195.033,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under47c2,150$1,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.998747.1%41 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09237755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Under48c2,000$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,04032051.9%166 W · 154 L+10.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb752…cabcbacked Under47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0603132.3%10 W · 21 L-4.3wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-35.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Over53c1,934$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025.025269.2%36 W · 16 L+8.7wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+32.4%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x84ac…a09bbacked Over54c1,830$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under47c1,702$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.1347542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe550…2c8bbacked Over53c1,413$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.8535749.6%177 W · 180 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over27c1,250$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.820638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Under47c1,100$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58316550.9%84 W · 81 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde79…2a1bbacked Under48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.6717349.7%86 W · 87 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…c48fbacked Under48c1,015$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$527.585147.1%24 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed Under47c999$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.4754443%234 W · 310 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over53c956.78$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.923,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under49c924.29$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.931,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cec…5326backed Under49c850$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.568645.5%312 W · 374 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over49c631.17$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.862,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under51c629.09$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.681,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973b…a912backed Under47c571$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.635947.5%28 W · 31 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x300b…e032backed Over55c545.45$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30019045.8%87 W · 103 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Under47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26514244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x443d…017fbacked Under52c481.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.2123550.2%118 W · 117 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d1…086ebacked Over54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011158.6%65 W · 46 L+6.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf34f…4d6ebacked Under47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.532759.3%16 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae9…0624backed Under48c425$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2211540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Under47c400$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21218233%60 W · 122 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over55c381.23$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.682,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Over54c370$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.852240%209 W · 313 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e87…4891backed Over53c369.96$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.233661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under49c361.94$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.844,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c9d…1299backed Under48c312.44$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.475648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6d6…be17backed Over54c282$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.2810448.1%50 W · 54 L-7.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Under48c277.08$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.0859650.3%300 W · 296 L+1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over54c222.22$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12039552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Under47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7729345.7%134 W · 159 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…1e41backed Under47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.77666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+21.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d9…c125backed Under47c211.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0920247.5%96 W · 106 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked Under48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3364944.7%290 W · 359 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked Under46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10824946.6%116 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Under48c166.67$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.6772250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under53c166.62$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.933,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Under48c160.42$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4234248.8%167 W · 175 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x718d…2b46backed Under47c148.94$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9446346.4%215 W · 248 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under48c136.55$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.011,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Under48c135.93$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6840546.9%190 W · 215 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under74c135.13$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1365872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x16ea…9400backed Over53c126$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.441,32249.9%660 W · 662 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb95…a5ccbacked Under48c120$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.824442.6%104 W · 140 L-17.8wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1deb…472fbacked Over55c109.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606845.6%31 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf639…b945backed Under46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.71650%8 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d6…bdc2backed Under46c108.7$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.73240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24e4…0478backed Over54c106.76$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.658850%44 W · 44 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed Under45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5522453.1%119 W · 105 L+29.4wins+0.13per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Under48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5295047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over51c97.34$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9953453.4%285 W · 249 L+19.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under43c96.49$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$552,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over31c94$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.162,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under47c91.95$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.2964844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdfa5…01b3backed Over55c90.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x434e…a62ebacked Over55c90.89$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9921748.4%105 W · 112 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over54c89.04$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.6551438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under48c88$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.7646447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b5…ae57backed Over57c87.72$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506946.4%32 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Under46c86.96$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.9628949.1%142 W · 147 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b22…dd09backed Under46c85.12$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.122045%9 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd154…9265backed Under48c83.25$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.292751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea1c…b810backed Over53c82$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.466852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddbd…e738backed Under47c82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.467443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8776…f2efbacked Over54c74.07$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407847.4%37 W · 41 L-4.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Under48c72.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.9213045.4%59 W · 71 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc62e…108dbacked Under48c70.35$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.586947.8%33 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45c1…4364backed Under48c68.46$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7514047.1%66 W · 74 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf884…0364backed Over54c65.04$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.121540%6 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.