TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,144

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,144 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6e82…752cbacked Over57c7,200$4,104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,103.771,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under44c5,628$2,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,154.929,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under40c2,595$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,558.54,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under44c2,210$968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,242.063,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over34c1,619$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.452123.8%5 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7879…3653backed Over64c1,559$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00015952.8%84 W · 75 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over57c1,250$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.526149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over52c865$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.82,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over52c840$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.81,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under40c836.18$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.014,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Under48c833.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.531,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under43c766.5$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.915,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under46c765.3$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.812,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over57c749.92$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.4538253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under59c749.25$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.398,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under51c653.77$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.73,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over34c612.54$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.0926337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under53c552.72$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.962,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over60c496$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.61,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Under43c386$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.026,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c330.2$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.154,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under37c327.43$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.452,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef4a…0314backed Over59c320.29$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.971533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-30.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e45…0a64backed Over51c312.58$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.951735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-42.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Under76c293.92$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.3165542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Over55c282$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.11,20051.6%619 W · 581 L+66.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc674…1176backed Under39c255.89$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.87650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over60c238$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.834851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc367…a0b4backed Under75c235.78$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.4816147.2%76 W · 85 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Under40c222.21$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3320638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c220.07$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.725,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over53c207.55$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11040344.4%179 W · 224 L-23.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under73c207.32$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.351,17050.3%588 W · 582 L+46.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b4…e861backed Over64c202.51$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.617047.1%33 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under41c200.22$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.131,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Over24c199.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4827052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Over11c177.37$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3810637.7%40 W · 66 L+9.3wins+0.09per pick29cpaid+47.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under55c158.55$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.111,78653.2%950 W · 836 L+52.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Over65c153.85$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10072250.6%365 W · 357 L-17.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under39c152.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.21,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6e7…884cbacked Over51c128.6$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5816338.7%63 W · 100 L-11.4wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-8.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3f6…03b4backed Under78c127.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.391100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e84…5c32backed Under41c111.4$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.731030%3 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick49cpaid-31.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0463…f69ebacked Under41c106.78$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2508…e25cbacked Over66c104.55$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f03…ed48backed Under41c101.72$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.011662.5%10 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+22.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Over57c101$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5721250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over57c100$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Under42c100$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5833949.9%169 W · 170 L-1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Over65c91.8$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010850%54 W · 54 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under43c86.08$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0760945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf72c…2669backed Over64c77.91$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43ff…30e8backed Under79c77.88$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.412138.1%8 W · 13 L-3.5wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-32.5%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5023657.2%135 W · 101 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf026…8df7backed Under54c76$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.8611843.2%51 W · 67 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Under46c75.32$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5383158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec15…9b0cbacked Over65c66.97$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.5328536.8%105 W · 180 L-10.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under43c66.32$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.855347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under45c63.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.261,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Under45c61.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8230845.8%141 W · 167 L-1.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b72…91dfbacked Over56c54.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.264035%14 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under43c52$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.6446447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb700…5a62backed Over62c50.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6917660.8%107 W · 69 L+6.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Over59c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.541052%213 W · 197 L-1.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Under45c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.563555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xecfc…cd05backed Over61c49$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.891,16352.8%614 W · 549 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8044…358ebacked Over58c48.94$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3954951.9%285 W · 264 L-2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under68c48$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.1511354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Under43c47.85$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2737845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over64c46$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.4417553.7%94 W · 81 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111c…40a3backed Under44c45.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.113138.7%12 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-18.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Under74c42.86$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.142,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under50c42.71$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.587744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under47c40.17$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.292,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under43c38.59$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2264844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93a4…6bdbbacked Over50c37.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.755932.2%19 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Over56c35.71$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201,44458.1%839 W · 605 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over57c35.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0580653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe86…6763backed Over31c35.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110243.1%44 W · 58 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x362a…8683backed Under43c30.23$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2313155%72 W · 59 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x079f…a9d1backed Under57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8811342.5%48 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb580…9b95backed Under57c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8818440.8%75 W · 109 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56cd…2ddcbacked Over49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.711845.8%54 W · 64 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb43e…fecfbacked Over57c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.23441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc036…30d4backed Under59c25.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.4151946.8%243 W · 276 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under43c23.26$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.2691746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over61c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Over59c20$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.841354%223 W · 190 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9043…af14backed Over64c15.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.