TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,153

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $161,153 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under51c46,890$24,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,767.111,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb784…61d0backed Over49c29,414$14,413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,412.8629351.5%151 W · 142 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under52c23,719$12,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,385.0215545.8%71 W · 84 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x43b6…9a9bbacked Over48c14,524$6,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,971.695030%15 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-36.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under51c13,653$6,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,690.064,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under51c13,213$6,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,474.291,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over49c10,041$4,891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,890.554,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47a6…69e0backed Over48c7,250$3,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,48038750.4%195 W · 192 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over48c6,354$3,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,05034854%188 W · 160 L+15.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Over50c6,304$3,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,152.2452460.1%315 W · 209 L+35.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07d8…9f3fbacked Over48c6,250$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0003240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb15…0f02backed Over49c6,141$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,00016640.4%67 W · 99 L-14.6wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over48c5,557$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,694.5234851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ab…9723backed Under51c4,651$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.7560351.4%310 W · 293 L+16.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Under51c4,650$2,372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,278.51,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Over48c4,419$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.0470246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1f3…d99cbacked Over48c4,218$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,024.548546.4%225 W · 260 L-14.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed Over49c4,025$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,972.2522648.2%109 W · 117 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over24c2,743$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.653,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Over16c2,320$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.126337.3%98 W · 165 L-1.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-20.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under51c2,236$1,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,085.793,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8861…4c2ebacked Over49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.6wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6da6…7d01backed Over49c2,041$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0008647.7%41 W · 45 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Over48c1,930$927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$926.5536351.2%186 W · 177 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b1…4b99backed Under54c1,852$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.8610847.2%51 W · 57 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x75e1…3ff3backed Under53c1,667$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.818853.4%47 W · 41 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over48c1,387$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$664.449,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x001a…1fb9backed Over48c1,245$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.631643.4%137 W · 179 L-18.0wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over47c1,213$568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.845,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over48c816$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.686,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf05d…ac5ebacked Under51c800$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39225155%138 W · 113 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4676…1639backed Under75c767.52$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.222050%10 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9c…dbaebacked Over54c709.45$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3831833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.2wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-34.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over48c621.05$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.913,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over47c544.23$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.962,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Under52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7722447.8%107 W · 117 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over43c303.36$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.342,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed Over9c300$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.565542.9%281 W · 374 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7100…b346backed Under52c261.9$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.7120147.8%96 W · 105 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under52c252.97$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.432,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51a…a0d9backed Under53c197$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5927455.5%152 W · 122 L+15.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under51c196.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb9…0f15backed Under52c192.17$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.241464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.1wins+0.15per pick49cpaid+29%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681,11052%577 W · 533 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdae4…f1fcbacked Under53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6819054.7%104 W · 86 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Over49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$805347.2%25 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Over49c151.51$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.249045.6%41 W · 49 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xabde…d41fbacked Under53c139.51$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.5741947.7%200 W · 219 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbec4…637fbacked Over42c131.83$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9953149.3%262 W · 269 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under52c119.52$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.8157650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017758.2%103 W · 74 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2344…3dbebacked Over49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a84…60fabacked Under53c94.34$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.346561.5%40 W · 25 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9572…ea8ebacked Under50c92$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.627960.8%48 W · 31 L+8.2wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd0b3…091cbacked Over49c92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.088251.2%42 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc991…abd4backed Under53c84.55$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7448751.7%252 W · 235 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over48c77.01$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.962,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over42c72.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.753,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x17b5…ae57backed Over49c71.43$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356946.4%32 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Under58c69$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.831,05549.9%526 W · 529 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over42c64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.882,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b42…62afbacked Under58c62.71$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.345850%29 W · 29 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41c0…9d61backed Under53c56.6$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.612155.4%67 W · 54 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under63c56$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.5911354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over48c53.89$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.071,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9510…16dfbacked Under52c45.61$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.8930453.3%162 W · 142 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over48c41.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8464844.8%290 W · 358 L-32.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8a41…145fbacked Under52c38.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.483852.6%20 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick59cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Over50c38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9446447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…e8d5backed Under53c37.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.741656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Under52c37.37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.9423950.6%121 W · 118 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80c3…5ac7backed Under54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.046453.1%34 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed Under52c36.86$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.694645.7%21 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe164…acfebacked Over49c32.65$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166850%34 W · 34 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36aa…a683backed Under53c32.09$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0840548.6%197 W · 208 L+0.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b66…dbd1backed Under66c30.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.31478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f02…f85fbacked Under71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.72853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcd8…9908backed Under51c27.9$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6722552.4%118 W · 107 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4630…1968backed Under52c27.36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1312650%63 W · 63 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…8581backed Under76c26.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.363557.1%20 W · 15 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under72c25.76$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.142,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Under63c24.02$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8314860.1%89 W · 59 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over48c21.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3757950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed81…acefbacked Under52c21.15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.15250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Under53c20.38$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.5889853.1%477 W · 421 L+21.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x27c5…0d4cbacked Under51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87859%46 W · 32 L+5.0wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Under73c15.1$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.1388057.5%506 W · 374 L+34.6wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.