TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Celtics (-21.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Wizardsof Celtics, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,666 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0b78…9992backed Celtics50c400$198 inLost-$19820051.5%103 W · 97 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Celtics53c390$207 inLost-$206.72,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Celtics49c381.27$185 inLost-$185.032,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Wizards50c207.98$104 inWon+$103.991,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda22…6d2abacked Celtics52c189.62$99 inLost-$999443.6%41 W · 53 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x478a…2deabacked Wizards52c185.09$96 inWon+$89.349050%45 W · 45 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Wizards80c185.09$148 inWon+$37.021,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Wizards51c171.78$88 inWon+$84.229,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Celtics50c83.2$42 inLost-$41.551,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Wizards80c50$40 inWon+$1037848.7%184 W · 194 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7691…7af7backed Celtics20c50$10 inLost-$105644.6%25 W · 31 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+31%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc119…7d4dbacked Wizards59c20.34$12 inWon+$8.3417650%88 W · 88 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.