TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

1H Spread: Celtics (-11.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Celticsof Celtics, Wizards
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$10,468

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,468 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe33f…eed7backed Celtics50c5,706$2,853 inWon+$2,8533943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Wizards50c4,999$2,499 inLost-$2,499.0277348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Wizards50c1,065$532 inLost-$532.454,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17ff…d7afbacked Celtics50c826.9$413 inWon+$413.452450%12 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Wizards50c300$150 inLost-$1503,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Wizards50c246$123 inLost-$1231,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e9…6d8ebacked Wizards51c200$102 inLost-$10215446.1%71 W · 83 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Celtics49c178.03$87 inWon+$90.7926353.6%141 W · 122 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Wizards46c92.59$43 inLost-$42.592,75350.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L+47.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd790…a24ebacked Celtics54c92.59$50 inWon+$42.596963.8%44 W · 25 L+9.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+30%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Wizards50c60$30 inLost-$301,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Celtics50c60$30 inWon+$3057444.1%253 W · 321 L-20.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x45f1…0075backed Celtics51c49.02$25 inWon+$24.024337.2%16 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-24.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb83d…3aa2backed Wizards51c47.98$25 inLost-$24.5524042.9%103 W · 137 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2271…8170backed Wizards50c44.74$22 inLost-$22.3718147%85 W · 96 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2702…a103backed Celtics50c44.74$22 inWon+$22.377753.2%41 W · 36 L+8.1wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6c82…6150backed Celtics49c40.04$20 inWon+$20.4263555.6%353 W · 282 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03c0…14c1backed Celtics50c40$20 inWon+$201752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.