TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,693 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b17…1bc2backed Under45c16,602$7,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,068.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Over55c11,483$6,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,280.381,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Over55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,50038253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Under43c5,363$2,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,056.8426544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbff9…009dbacked Over37c3,385$1,268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,267.6127052.6%142 W · 128 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over55c3,150$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,741.259,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under45c2,428$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,334.694,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c2,296$1,056 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.614,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb8e…962bbacked Over54c2,275$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.141855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under71c1,906$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$550.498,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over22c1,701$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.1720638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under46c1,266$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.585,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed Over55c1,250$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.526149.4%129 W · 132 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under72c1,167$844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.273,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef99…ef8dbacked Under47c1,113$523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.099952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0100…f6dcbacked Under47c1,098$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.388647.7%41 W · 45 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over54c870.41$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.026,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Over50c775$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.52,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under78c769.26$597 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.1765872.8%479 W · 179 L+46.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd6eb…5402backed Over57c526.32$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30011159.5%66 W · 45 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under49c479.15$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.372,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under53c461.57$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.533,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3297…43cdbacked Under40c325.99$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.591250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under44c318.18$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.1852146.6%243 W · 278 L-14.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5583…8490backed Under41c242.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+39.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.2743447.5%206 W · 228 L-8.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Over55c225.25$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.8921250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under46c222.54$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1754549.5%270 W · 275 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x443b…e8bbbacked Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3913750.4%69 W · 68 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over55c208.68$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.633,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over42c203.67$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.581,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Over54c200.81$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10877549.2%381 W · 394 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under43c200$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9916…bcb2backed Under54c199.99$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9218743.3%81 W · 106 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Over54c185.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.2980653.6%432 W · 374 L+16.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x375f…21b6backed Under46c183$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.824100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Under55c182.36$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3618242.9%78 W · 104 L-10.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ee2…e318backed Under46c179$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.664100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick56cpaid+90.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over45c179$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.042,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under48c157.61$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.055,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdad…9eaebacked Under47c120$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.624428.7%70 W · 174 L-22.4wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under45c113.51$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.983,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f0a…7ca8backed Over60c111.37$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.821631.3%5 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.19per pick50cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4a8c…1977backed Over60c109.19$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.512055%11 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over22c105.7$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.252,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1792…99d0backed Over60c104.61$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.771553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over57c95$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.1595047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Over57c91.45$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.851,19748.9%585 W · 612 L-14.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Under51c87.21$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.613,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8d0…c146backed Over54c87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1320%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0b…2361backed Over54c87$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.9830%0 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa442…d722backed Over50c81.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.961030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-46.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee60…6902backed Over50c81.92$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9637665.4%246 W · 130 L+62.0wins+0.16per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x95bb…213abacked Over62c81.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503036.7%11 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-19.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under46c80.44$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4460945.8%279 W · 330 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under45c77.73$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.662,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Over33c65.14$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3210028%28 W · 72 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-23.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8632…4696backed Under46c62.01$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.4955347.9%265 W · 288 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over54c58.98$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b72…91dfbacked Over54c56.07$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.284035%14 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under46c54.35$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.351,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x27fc…4f00backed Over54c53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.62560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Over26c52.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5451438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under56c48.87$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.2787744.7%392 W · 485 L-1.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94bb…c320backed Under46c47.79$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.8137845%170 W · 208 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a96…6885backed Over54c45$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.330%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Under50c41.32$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6683158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over51c40.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5760250.5%304 W · 298 L+14.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c0a…62acbacked Over54c39$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c17…0458backed Over50c38.74$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3717153.2%91 W · 80 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over45c36.36$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.361,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca14…48d0backed Under55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.36728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed Over62c36$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3217553.7%94 W · 81 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…04dbbacked Over54c36$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f15…0ce5backed Over56c33.35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.683345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+13.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc9…185bbacked Over57c33.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1929247.9%140 W · 152 L-0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb43e…fecfbacked Over55c30$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.53441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-30.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa0c5…4291backed Over53c27.97$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9296956.3%546 W · 423 L+26.0wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Under46c23.48$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6832752.9%173 W · 154 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24ca…5829backed Under64c22.62$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.0426043.8%114 W · 146 L-15.1wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f39…d603backed Under46c21.74$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7491746.9%430 W · 487 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4be0…cba2backed Over51c19.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.