NBA · resolved market
Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72156f72576e142cedde5912e8ddb96704756dd917c64c658d3353904bfd60a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,159
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,159 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 51c | 36,000$18,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,314.17 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c75…329abacked Over | 51c | 26,448$13,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,488.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Under | 49c | 22,222$10,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,333.2 | 155 | 45.8%71 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 49c | 12,577$6,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,372.79 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 8,905$4,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,544.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 47c | 6,991$3,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,705.07 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 49c | 5,322$2,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.03 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 49c | 4,025$1,972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.75 | 226 | 48.2%109 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Under | 48c | 2,487$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.91 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x128f…db9dbacked Under | 50c | 2,006$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,005.83 | 206 | 51.5%106 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…4c2ebacked Over | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc443…359bbacked Over | 52c | 957.88$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.1 | 238 | 45%107 W · 131 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 49c | 780.39$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.1 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cad…0758backed Over | 51c | 779.37$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.48 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 49c | 779.02$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.34 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 606.01$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.01 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Under | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 672 | 52.7%354 W · 318 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 48c | 478.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.7 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Over | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 177 | 58.2%103 W · 74 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 45c | 282.78$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.25 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 222.42$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 50c | 221.62$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 196.26$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf469…dcaabacked Over | 51c | 191.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.7 | 221 | 54.8%121 W · 100 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 56c | 168.08$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.04 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80f…92febacked Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 555 | 33.5%186 W · 369 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Over | 52c | 96.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Under | 50c | 91.03$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.51 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…6639backed Over | 51c | 90$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddbd…e738backed Under | 50c | 90$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed Over | 49c | 71.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.63 | 295 | 56.6%167 W · 128 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Over | 51c | 63.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…6fd4backed Over | 52c | 48.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabae…d62dbacked Over | 52c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Over | 51c | 38.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 256 | 51.6%132 W · 124 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 51c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 188 | 53.7%101 W · 87 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 49c | 31.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 49c | 30.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 648 | 44.8%290 W · 358 L | -32.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 73c | 27.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 232.5this page
- 1H Spread: Celtics (-11.5)Celtics won
- Jaylen Brown: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Payton Pritchard: Rebounds O/U 3.5Yes won
- Sam Hauser: Points O/U 9.5Yes won
- Spread: Celtics (-19.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Celtics (-20.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Celtics (-21.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Celtics (-25.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Celtics (-26.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Celtics (-28.5)Wizards won
- Trae Young: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Wizards vs. CelticsCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H MoneylineCeltics won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 117.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 216.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 217.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 227.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 228.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 229.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 231.5Under won
- Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 233.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.