TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Wizards vs. Celtics: O/U 230.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,393

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $102,393 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over55c13,709$7,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,515.5287451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Over53c11,771$6,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,238.766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed Under45c10,740$4,833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,9079440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under45c8,140$3,694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,445.954,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c5,434$2,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,868.544,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over55c4,443$2,444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,443.662,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Under50c4,300$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1501,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Under47c4,200$1,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,22637755.2%208 W · 169 L+23.5wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4a6f…6b82backed Over56c3,219$1,802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,802.465151%26 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under45c2,231$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,223.139,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4da…658ebacked Over49c2,155$1,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,055.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x287b…b7bebacked Under49c2,071$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,056.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b06…10c2backed Under51c2,009$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.412100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3746…88cbbacked Over49c1,931$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f1e…8a92backed Over49c1,912$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda1b…033ebacked Under51c1,900$969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef9c…55c5backed Under51c1,891$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c13…cd35backed Over49c1,880$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$921.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1281…5259backed Over49c1,832$898 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.6820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ba8…93b6backed Over49c1,815$890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$889.9120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd0…8f68backed Under51c1,812$924 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$887.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ea1…e2cbbacked Under51c1,762$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$863.38250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c7f…95f5backed Under51c1,652$843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.482100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46b5…6347backed Under51c1,618$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$792.82250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63e6…5e0ebacked Over49c1,558$763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$763.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa96a…2961backed Under51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$735250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82e9…63d5backed Under51c1,458$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$714.422100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x14ff…7006backed Over49c1,412$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$691.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50fb…1947backed Over51c1,410$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea0…d377backed Over49c1,388$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5852…5558backed Under51c1,318$672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.822100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc84c…e97dbacked Under51c1,276$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1bf…f357backed Under50c1,253$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$628.2516953.3%90 W · 79 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over51c1,224$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6283,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9683…ef4ebacked Under49c1,210$593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.1250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7012…6c6fbacked Over49c1,205$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bca…b2d5backed Under49c1,199$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+98.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691b…be9abacked Over51c1,180$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…1db3backed Under51c1,157$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.932100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1355…a635backed Over49c1,148$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x578e…d99fbacked Under51c1,135$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$556.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x04e1…01f4backed Over49c1,121$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb805…48c7backed Under51c1,091$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.59250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37d4…6aeabacked Over49c1,050$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over39c942.08$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.923,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d10…3edabacked Over51c932$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14f4…d4c7backed Over51c931$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ba8…d3e7backed Over49c912$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.8820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Over15c838.24$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7420638.3%79 W · 127 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5dc7…03a6backed Under51c812$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.88250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbde6…e8b5backed Over52c800$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41610251%52 W · 50 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe962…663abacked Over50c800$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40084342.9%362 W · 481 L-39.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x777a…1f85backed Over49c769$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.81250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d29…c9babacked Under51c746$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.542100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8941…0ab2backed Over49c733$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under50c700$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35031354.3%170 W · 143 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Under73c685.63$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.6327158.3%158 W · 113 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Over51c685.34$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.5222752%118 W · 109 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef4…7bcfbacked Over49c663$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over27c634.62$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.353,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x99d0…f1f3backed Under51c620$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73a6…79e8backed Under51c599$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ee…464ebacked Under51c598$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0953…dbdabacked Under51c555$283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16c7…0305backed Over49c552$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over50c542.76$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.074,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97b4…7d11backed Over49c539$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.11250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62bb…02fcbacked Under49c520$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Over55c472.44$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.842,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0263…47e6backed Over49c440$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…795bbacked Over49c429$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ee…61dabacked Over51c420$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd534…a166backed Under51c410$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.92100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under49c408$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.081,15049.5%569 W · 581 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfabc…2857backed Under49c401$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.51333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5ab…c544backed Under51c372$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85a7…d9f3backed Under47c345.56$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.5613345.9%61 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ddc…3077backed Over49c335$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.15425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xea15…dcadbacked Over51c320$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Under45c316$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.845646.7%213 W · 243 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c303$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.52,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f0f…a5b2backed Over49c299$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.51250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under48c273.08$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1422,46850.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c07…cb48backed Over49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under45c249.42$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.263,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e87…4891backed Over54c230.64$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1253661.1%22 W · 14 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick46cpaid+29%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Under63c230$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.251,38439.4%545 W · 839 L+4.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfde4…74a8backed Over51c208$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ea…8b9abacked Under48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10415650%78 W · 78 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed Over11c200$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2214244.4%63 W · 79 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Over55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11034851.7%180 W · 168 L+1.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08da…4d16backed Under51c195$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Under55c166.1$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.323,55146.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L+1.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Under45c158$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.956547.8%270 W · 295 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc08…9ba1backed Over49c158$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over40c155.62$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.341,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa528…2499backed Over28c137.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5183158.1%483 W · 348 L+18.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17b5…ae57backed Over57c131.58$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756946.4%32 W · 37 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under46c106.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.452,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf7…8f79backed Under47c105.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.271,39348.3%673 W · 720 L+19.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.