TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4b72…91df

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 38.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT4035%14 W · 26 L-6.7wins-0.17per pick52cpaid-23.8%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.94
Cavaliers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$24.93
Rockets vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.81
Bulls vs. Grizzliesbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.54
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$74.13
Clippers vs. Pacersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.17
Pelicans vs. Pistonsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.83
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.57
Nuggets vs. Sunsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$13.94
Warriors vs. Mavericksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$25.15
Raptors vs. Jazzbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.17
Lakers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$35.36
Spurs vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.9
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.71
Warriors vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$17.73
Clippers vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$24.72
Spread: Hawks (-8.5)backed Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.38
Spread: Thunder (-19.5)backed Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.77
Trail Blazers vs. Pacers: O/U 235.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Spread: Timberwolves (-12.5)backed Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$20.63
Raptors vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.24
Clippers vs. Pelicans: O/U 233.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Warriors vs. Celticsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.92
Spread: Nuggets (-16.5)backed 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Spread: Knicks (-15.5)backed Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.22
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Boston Red Sox vs. Houston Astrosbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.11
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$25.15
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Chicago White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.96
Boston Red Sox vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$38.33
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Atlanta Braves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.57
Tampa Bay Rays vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.98
Washington Nationals vs. Chicago Cubsbacked Washington Nationals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.8
Detroit Tigers vs. San Diego Padresbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.08
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$21.33
Cleveland Guardians vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$53.4
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgersbacked Los Angeles Dodgers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$12.65
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked Philadelphia Phillies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$21.71
Chicago White Sox vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked Milwaukee Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$18.31
New York Yankees vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$22.21
All 14 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Red Wings vs. Penguinsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.63
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$26.67
Islanders vs. Sabresbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.3
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.04
Flames vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$9.17
Canucks vs. Flamesbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$21.71
Flyers vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.59
Jets vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.07
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.69
Ducks vs. Canucksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19.96
Sharks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$26.67
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$19.63
Devils vs. Capitalsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$37
All 13 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.35per pick48cpaid+71%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$556Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$227.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,673Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,673.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.