TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Hawksof Hawks, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,992,700
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,315,341

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,992,700 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,509 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb45a…192cbacked Hawks56c218,010$123,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94,950.1954539.6%216 W · 329 L-28.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Magic39c195,400$76,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76,622.6472648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Hawks57c141,581$80,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60,879.7887451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd38a…8d26backed Magic44c122,996$54,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,118.45253.8%28 W · 24 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Hawks62c121,132$74,883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,249.342,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Hawks61c100,000$61,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,999.938750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Magic38c75,660$29,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,048.191,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Magic44c74,183$32,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,640.3240446.8%189 W · 215 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebe5…b317backed Hawks57c70,074$39,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,131.842360.9%14 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Hawks66c56,515$37,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,329.826744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Magic44c55,493$24,153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,152.8636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Hawks70c53,574$37,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,187.992,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Magic37c49,999$18,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,499.849244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Magic0c48,184$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.241,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Magic0c47,922$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.875213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Magic43c44,888$19,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,302.0427747.7%132 W · 145 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed Hawks56c41,274$23,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,160.42683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.42per pick42cpaid+125.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Magic42c41,179$17,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,295.1615644.9%70 W · 86 L-9.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x26e9…cd29backed Magic0c40,423$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.42137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick14cpaid-86.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Hawks60c39,999$24,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,849.7634456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Hawks60c38,070$22,983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,087.2420744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Magic43c36,693$15,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,777.811137.8%42 W · 69 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Hawks57c29,124$16,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,426.5842348%203 W · 220 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc0…4429backed Magic44c28,992$12,756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,756.4848343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Magic43c28,753$12,364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,363.9766248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Hawks59c28,744$17,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,648.0832540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Hawks59c26,978$15,969 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,008.7210239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11db…841fbacked Magic0c25,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252270%0 W · 227 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Magic44c25,000$10,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,899.9415740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Magic10c24,120$2,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,411.9928241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Hawks59c23,661$13,895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,765.689,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Magic18c21,148$3,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,815.41,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Hawks61c20,000$12,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,90020454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba41…5f4fbacked Hawks56c20,000$11,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,70031445.2%142 W · 172 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…d0e2backed Hawks56c19,588$10,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,596.192240.9%9 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick51cpaid-27.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Magic43c17,198$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,395.0843148.7%210 W · 221 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2b5…4582backed Hawks57c17,091$9,742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,349.2313642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-19.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xefdd…017fbacked Magic42c16,795$7,054 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,054.01933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Magic43c15,000$6,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4509159.3%54 W · 37 L+9.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2487…fa80backed Magic44c15,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,599.9818045%81 W · 99 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Magic40c12,848$5,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,07541832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Hawks61c12,776$7,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,982.61,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Hawks63c12,733$8,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,715.087243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x542e…e7e2backed Magic37c12,500$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,624.981533.3%5 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-40.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8a1…2974backed Hawks56c12,195$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,379.5417331.8%55 W · 118 L-8.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Magic40c12,159$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,811.5611335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Magic31c11,703$3,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,674.991,00334.7%348 W · 655 L-44.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hawks60c11,025$6,582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,443.014,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46bc…2d14backed Magic39c10,007$3,903 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,902.8118931.2%59 W · 130 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…35aebacked Hawks56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40010236.3%37 W · 65 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7960…b94fbacked Hawks56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40019751.8%102 W · 95 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x445f…07d4backed Hawks62c10,000$6,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8002050%10 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x88a1…ad45backed Magic43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.975350.9%27 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Magic43c9,991$4,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,296.021,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Hawks61c9,856$6,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,798.4821350.7%108 W · 105 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Magic38c9,765$3,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,710.731,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe0…d994backed Magic41c9,636$3,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,950.8637448.7%182 W · 192 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1418…6fefbacked Hawks57c9,600$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.0343438.5%167 W · 267 L-1.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4fc…8af7backed Hawks57c9,600$5,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,080.0186641.5%359 W · 507 L-2.2wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic33c9,281$3,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,066.691,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Hawks60c9,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,599.9847043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1196…fe97backed Magic40c8,768$3,507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,507.26841.2%28 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Hawks60c8,747$5,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,479.4576850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Magic30c8,135$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,427.223,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Magic22c8,000$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.991,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Magic51c7,574$3,863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,863.413,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x340e…36f4backed Hawks62c6,640$4,117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,523.124652.2%24 W · 22 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Magic40c6,606$2,617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,616.9244551.2%228 W · 217 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Magic43c6,521$2,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,804.084,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26f8…3452backed Magic47c6,356$2,987 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,987.39938.4%38 W · 61 L-8.4wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-26%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1dbf…7776backed Magic23c6,262$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,440.1218343.7%80 W · 103 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-21.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfec8…50f7backed Hawks63c6,246$3,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,311.195567.3%37 W · 18 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic42c6,079$2,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,553.291,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Magic39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.9958449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Magic0c5,950$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.18820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5f6…a659backed Magic43c5,735$2,466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.1227241.9%114 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd36…a8acbacked Magic9c5,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49518151.9%94 W · 87 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f09…9312backed Magic44c5,491$2,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4169547.4%45 W · 50 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbce1…86afbacked Hawks56c5,487$3,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,439.223542.9%15 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Hawks57c5,179$2,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,208.5827865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Magic44c5,010$2,204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,204.325655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Hawks61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,949.9795641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Magic43c4,962$2,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,133.621,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Magic38c4,814$1,829 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,829.3225947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c10…8977backed Hawks60c4,734$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,893.4962347.7%297 W · 326 L-9.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Hawks65c4,665$3,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.892,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c8c…c7b4backed Hawks60c4,605$2,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.4535650%178 W · 178 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Hawks56c4,585$2,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.7514556.6%82 W · 63 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-2.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Magic44c4,393$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.838143%164 W · 217 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9f2…d4a9backed Hawks79c4,344$3,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$911.56366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-14.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc20b…2fb8backed Magic39c4,300$1,677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.985119.6%10 W · 41 L-4.1wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-45.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc689…5250backed Hawks60c4,255$2,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,709.453767.6%25 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Magic37c4,200$1,546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,546.3235251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f2…09a5backed Hawks50c4,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00012756.7%72 W · 55 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+8.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Hawks58c3,993$2,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.2462144%273 W · 348 L+0.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26a6…dedebacked Magic18c3,988$721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720.655626.8%15 W · 41 L-0.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid+5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca40…83f6backed Hawks53c3,912$2,073 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,838.6412945.7%59 W · 70 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8004…d0f1backed Hawks63c3,893$2,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4498055%44 W · 36 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc699…7961backed Hawks63c3,880$2,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,435.6620843.8%91 W · 117 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a1a…e54ebacked Hawks57c3,871$2,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,664.446058.3%35 W · 25 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.