TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Hawks vs. Magic: O/U 236.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,394

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,503 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xafaf…1635backed Over34c6,051$2,035 inLost-$2,035.331,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under70c2,189$1,525 inWon+$663.6434255.6%190 W · 152 L+28.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+36%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Under76c813.41$621 inWon+$192.441,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under58c590.28$344 inWon+$246.1852230.3%158 W · 364 L+20.4wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over47c568.1$267 inLost-$266.79,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Under68c507.25$347 inWon+$160.3627463.5%174 W · 100 L+34.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Under62c361.67$223 inWon+$139.0857550.3%289 W · 286 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe558…dcd2backed Under67c329.34$222 inWon+$107.239349.5%46 W · 47 L+5.9wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under50c298.76$149 inWon+$149.382,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7669…f58cbacked Under66c272.32$180 inWon+$92.5952052.3%272 W · 248 L+31.4wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+19%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Over71c138.39$98 inLost-$98.2619166.5%127 W · 64 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Under50c127.07$64 inWon+$63.5434247.7%163 W · 179 L-8.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under59c97.55$58 inWon+$39.811354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under47c90$42 inWon+$47.65,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Under61c79.1$48 inWon+$30.851,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under29c76.25$22 inWon+$54.143,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under50c75.18$38 inWon+$37.593,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d72…5f50backed Under61c46.88$29 inWon+$18.282839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6762…a9a5backed Under53c36.3$19 inWon+$17.067382.2%60 W · 13 L+18.6wins+0.26per pick57cpaid+45.9%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over43c30$13 inLost-$12.937753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3676…330cbacked Under66c29.39$19 inWon+$9.991040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-31.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.