Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf2a299f130a270f9eb272d3fc9414712b1887e3d92b5bcf802a3f86a15d5162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $125,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,698
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $125,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 13c | 10,440$1,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,381.22 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…f429backed No | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked No | 2c | 6,957$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 18c | 4,191$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$754.31 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 0c | 4,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f2…ad07backed No | 1c | 3,225$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked No | 8c | 2,307$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.37 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 5c | 1,639$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.67 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x78a2…6658backed No | 19c | 1,617$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.7 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 9c | 1,500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,448$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 6c | 1,393$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.09 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba31…d1dfbacked No | 4c | 1,220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec09…b497backed No | 5c | 750.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 24cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 9c | 700$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 4c | 664.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked No | 4c | 581.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 15c | 569.42$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.73 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 519.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.33 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35ff…e8bdbacked No | 6c | 390$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 8c | 378.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…6657backed No | 5c | 351.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +9.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb65a…b3aebacked No | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 8c | 299.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…9890backed Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x71fe…461ebacked No | 12c | 89.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86df…7d27backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa878…27bebacked Yes | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.94 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.