Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b4f1af873ff1ce0c117fce7278de7758a2244cc0f840817afe5365fd7d49fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $314,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $268,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4629…73dbbacked Yes | 2c | 15,000$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 14,478$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 14,276$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ce…3b06backed Yes | 0c | 12,982$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0674…e065backed Yes | 1c | 10,452$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,304$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfc…98e0backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 0c | 7,612$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 0c | 7,479$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x553a…177fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,417$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129b…24c4backed Yes | 2c | 4,977$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.66 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 0c | 4,200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,139$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3081…d24abacked Yes | 0c | 3,788$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 1c | 3,415$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa18c…25f6backed Yes | 1c | 3,228$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc293…8e9abacked Yes | 10c | 3,129$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +102.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,796$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16df…1b0bbacked Yes | 0c | 2,596$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 2,231$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc219…02ecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,121$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8846…8a9cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 18cpaid | +220.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 1,883$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…c9a2backed Yes | 1c | 1,680$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +1,138.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,557$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 2c | 1,224$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea0…536fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ce…dcfabacked Yes | 2c | 1,100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6538…ae3dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,039$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…a88fbacked Yes | 2c | 958.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae1…f52fbacked Yes | 3c | 672.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…e7d0backed No | 80c | 607.14$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.43 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.28per pick | 63cpaid | +64%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 2c | 527.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 37 | 16.2%6 W · 31 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 3c | 466.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 2c | 408$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…631abacked Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b47…9930backed Yes | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…de1dbacked Yes | 15c | 137.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 17c | 114$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 80c | 86.09$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadc7…a728backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x247b…6610backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9138backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 62 | 27.4%17 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.