Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c63b932e50af1b94366ea9e40a1278f1bdcbcd153a11ecd82a350b752a245a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd897…7fbdbacked No | 32c | 6,254$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…d601backed No | 3c | 5,871$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes | 45c | 4,865$2,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.54 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +121.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked No | 3c | 3,775$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.4 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde28…a563backed No | 52c | 3,202$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.04 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.21per pick | 28cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…0034backed Yes | 77c | 2,600$1,995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.44 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.34per pick | 35cpaid | +185.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 33c | 2,560$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.56 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ea…476cbacked No | 27c | 2,405$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.14 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…8360backed No | 34c | 2,370$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…d02bbacked Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +8.2wins | +0.59per pick | 34cpaid | +617.6%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x05ff…6bbcbacked Yes | 76c | 2,000$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.76 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 1,960$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 2c | 1,723$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb39a…abedbacked No | 36c | 1,588$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.2wins | -0.36per pick | 58cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 71c | 1,500$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c0…de1cbacked No | 2c | 1,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6817…f496backed No | 47c | 1,500$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b23…4528backed Yes | 58c | 1,253$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.39 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | +5.9wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3478…d770backed Yes | 71c | 1,157$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.38 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes | 71c | 1,076$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…90e7backed Yes | 79c | 1,025$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.44 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked No | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 2c | 962.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed No | 22c | 927.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.82 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 5c | 926.23$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.14 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed No | 58c | 880.19$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.53 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 54c | 718.99$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.51 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1887…5ae3backed No | 28c | 707.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +66%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1ea…6765backed Yes | 73c | 705.74$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.74 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 78c | 673.18$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.14 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 4c | 632.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94df…2dcebacked No | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 71c | 600$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.4 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked No | 3c | 570.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes | 71c | 562.14$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.02 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b7…7d51backed No | 56c | 500$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 205 | 51.2%105 W · 100 L | +13.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11be…3968backed Yes | 76c | 480$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.7 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +4.7wins | +0.43per pick | 48cpaid | +153.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 38c | 469.28$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d4f…4602backed No | 21c | 466.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 74c | 461.2$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.52 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b0e…8884backed Yes | 55c | 399.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 29c | 384.18$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 72c | 370$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.57 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a47…740bbacked No | 22c | 369.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca29…287fbacked Yes | 79c | 306.89$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…ee16backed Yes | 68c | 292.24$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f1…6395backed No | 29c | 242.1$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +295.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 21c | 235.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fd…3ecfbacked Yes | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +260.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 48c | 169.54$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.16 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x003b…1ebebacked No | 46c | 143.72$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b6…302fbacked Yes | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf07…c770backed No | 25c | 114.63$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 10c | 104.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed Yes | 63c | 103$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 80c | 101.06$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x482b…3266backed No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…c4e9backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +6.7wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98b5…416abacked No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9187…abb5backed No | 53c | 99.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd88e…87c6backed Yes | 61c | 91.48$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4541…30d3backed Yes | 62c | 85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99e9…2163backed Yes | 45c | 65.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…0935backed Yes | 79c | 63.61$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda85…bd68backed Yes | 51c | 56.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.44 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +125.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 54c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be6…8742backed No | 76c | 52.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 62cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb512…aba5backed Yes | 67c | 52.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53c…e569backed No | 37c | 47.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…3a21backed Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 33c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 69c | 25.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 47c | 22.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47a…f33cbacked Yes | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 72c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 48 | 91.7%44 W · 4 L | +9.0wins | +0.19per pick | 73cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d9…3eaabacked Yes | 63c | 15.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ede…7865backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.41per pick | 39cpaid | +205.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.