TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$86,579
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$89,200

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,579 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd897…7fbdbacked No32c6,254$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00030%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xed4d…d601backed No3c5,871$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.13728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid-40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a7b…e9ebbacked Yes45c4,865$2,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,688.543100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+121.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc916…e32ebacked No3c3,775$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.42321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde28…a563backed No52c3,202$1,665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,665.04147.1%1 W · 13 L-3.0wins-0.21per pick28cpaid-75.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf97e…0034backed Yes77c2,600$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.441369.2%9 W · 4 L+4.5wins+0.34per pick35cpaid+185.2%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked No33c2,560$835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.5611124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ea…476cbacked No27c2,405$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$640.14616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick24cpaid-62.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc1…8360backed No34c2,370$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7963627.8%10 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4204…d02bbacked Yes48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.331492.9%13 W · 1 L+8.2wins+0.59per pick34cpaid+617.6%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0x05ff…6bbcbacked Yes76c2,000$1,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$489.764100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+54.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed No3c1,960$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.322061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked No2c1,723$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.981541.9%3 W · 151 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb39a…abedbacked No36c1,588$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.76922.2%2 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.36per pick58cpaid-66.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x05ab…8145backed Yes71c1,500$1,065 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4358532.9%28 W · 57 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c0…de1cbacked No2c1,500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick43cpaid+12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6817…f496backed No47c1,500$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7063946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b23…4528backed Yes58c1,253$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.394660.9%28 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+53.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3478…d770backed Yes71c1,157$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.383100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+114.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ccd…c21dbacked Yes71c1,076$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.19475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8168…90e7backed Yes79c1,025$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.442552%13 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204b…6a5cbacked No45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4504839.6%19 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-3.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked No2c962.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.584617.4%8 W · 38 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c8…8cd8backed No22c927.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.822544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+181.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No5c926.23$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.147663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2256…e997backed No58c880.19$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.533622.2%8 W · 28 L-5.1wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-59.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No54c718.99$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.5115041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1887…5ae3backed No28c707.72$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+66%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ea…6765backed Yes73c705.74$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.74977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+75.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes78c673.18$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.143775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No4c632.05$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.892917.2%5 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94df…2dcebacked No55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3305459.3%32 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes71c600$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.46931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c90…5bacbacked No22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1325320.8%11 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked No3c570.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9711421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e37…cccbbacked Yes71c562.14$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.0210143.6%44 W · 57 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93b7…7d51backed No56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28020551.2%105 W · 100 L+13.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d4d…b3f4backed No7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357047.1%33 W · 37 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick32cpaid+61.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11be…3968backed Yes76c480$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.71190.9%10 W · 1 L+4.7wins+0.43per pick48cpaid+153.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No38c469.28$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d4f…4602backed No21c466.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf579…9989backed Yes74c461.2$341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.522744.4%12 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-30.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0e…8884backed Yes55c399.99$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2b9f…047ebacked No29c384.18$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1102114.3%3 W · 18 L-4.1wins-0.20per pick34cpaid-74.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes72c370$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.578733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a47…740bbacked No22c369.65$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.862853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+50.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca29…287fbacked Yes79c306.89$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.522665.4%17 W · 9 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc57a…ee16backed Yes68c292.24$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.24366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+23.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3f1…6395backed No29c242.1$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid+295.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb45c…9cf5backed No21c235.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505745.6%26 W · 31 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+19.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1fd…3ecfbacked Yes80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401040%4 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+24.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32d6…a8f5backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1105642.9%24 W · 32 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+260.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes48c169.54$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.163560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x003b…1ebebacked No46c143.72$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.111450%7 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+2.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x29b6…302fbacked Yes79c126.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.58785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick58cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcf07…c770backed No25c114.63$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.973636.1%13 W · 23 L+3.3wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xecb2…a30cbacked No10c104.23$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.01922.2%2 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-17.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed Yes63c103$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.121855.6%10 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.17per pick38cpaid+49.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes80c101.06$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x482b…3266backed No21c100$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.53141.9%13 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-21.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No18c100$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.813495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a76…c4e9backed No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204647.8%22 W · 24 L+6.7wins+0.15per pick33cpaid+52.6%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x98b5…416abacked No20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-61.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9187…abb5backed No53c99.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.991241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd88e…87c6backed Yes61c91.48$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.132100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+90.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4541…30d3backed Yes62c85$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x99e9…2163backed Yes45c65.45$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd87f…0935backed Yes79c63.61$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.16742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick60cpaid-43.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xda85…bd68backed Yes51c56.44$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.44862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick37cpaid+125.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No54c53$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.622152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be6…8742backed No76c52.7$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.9wins-0.24per pick62cpaid-47.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xb512…aba5backed Yes67c52.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.042544%11 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53c…e569backed No37c47.88$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.862860.7%17 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+51.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7c1…3a21backed Yes78c40$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick67cpaid-57.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No33c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0146320.5%95 W · 368 L-68.1wins-0.15per pick35cpaid-59.8%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes69c25.69$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.841643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.15per pick59cpaid-33.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes47c22.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.948032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc47a…f33cbacked Yes78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes72c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.134891.7%44 W · 4 L+9.0wins+0.19per pick73cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xd3d9…3eaabacked Yes63c15.85$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ede…7865backed Yes80c12.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.5580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.41per pick39cpaid+205.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.