Token Launches · resolved market
USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0ee36d67a622c17526f661a750ccefb0053677b30c7850b079f837121a10a145
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $401,831
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $476,042
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,831 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3257…2f3bbacked No | 38c | 15,000$5,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,699.99 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes | 3c | 13,138$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,733.26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 31cpaid | +495.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Yes | 44c | 7,814$3,466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,348.73 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes | 2c | 7,105$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,995.4 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +153.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes | 62c | 5,600$3,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,128 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 4,723$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,643.84 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 33c | 4,022$1,342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,679.82 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 1c | 4,000$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc701…33c1backed Yes | 19c | 2,961$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,411.33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.5wins | +0.32per pick | 46cpaid | +133.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc916…e32ebacked Yes | 21c | 2,944$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,313.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 5c | 2,728$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,600.83 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes | 38c | 2,604$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,603.98 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +7.8wins | +0.21per pick | 55cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 44c | 2,257$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 22cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7be…ee50backed Yes | 7c | 2,117$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,967.17 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +651.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 2c | 2,029$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,986.93 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +3.4wins | +0.24per pick | 11cpaid | +995.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x402e…5d12backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,540 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,971 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d1…62c2backed Yes | 46c | 1,983$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.78 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,820$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,769.41 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986e…005fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,712$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 3cpaid | +3,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…e197backed Yes | 2c | 1,692$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,653.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,247.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…d8c9backed Yes | 14c | 1,663$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,422.58 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.50per pick | 30cpaid | +404.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x356a…bfeabacked Yes | 4c | 1,650$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,579.04 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1332…d768backed Yes | 2c | 1,634$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,661.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…35ecbacked Yes | 1c | 1,628$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,611.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.99per pick | 1cpaid | +9,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe4c…a603backed Yes | 2c | 1,601$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,567.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,661.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 2c | 1,600$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,570 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +1,677.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…b21ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,600$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 23cpaid | +1,824.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9074…5051backed Yes | 3c | 1,587$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,536.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,025%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes | 44c | 1,582$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.39 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes | 4c | 1,478$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,425.09 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +181.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bc…504abacked Yes | 25c | 1,467$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,093.53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +287.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed No | 69c | 1,458$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fc…add8backed Yes | 42c | 1,357$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +119.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x376d…78cabacked No | 77c | 1,340$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,031.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 65cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…77e6backed Yes | 8c | 1,337$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,224.02 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +588.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x58aa…a481backed Yes | 62c | 1,310$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.53 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969c…5266backed Yes | 16c | 1,305$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,099.72 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +4.4wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +159.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xae7f…d4febacked Yes | 4c | 1,284$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,233.56 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.29per pick | 30cpaid | +657.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd3…30c5backed Yes | 25c | 1,254$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940.08 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,217$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.73 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +246.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 77c | 1,184$918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$917.73 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8085…ea17backed Yes | 48c | 1,029$495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.79 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +8.5wins | +0.38per pick | 30cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x0bb5…f420backed Yes | 2c | 1,021$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +978.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70da…2599backed Yes | 2c | 1,005$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,900%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$965 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.51per pick | 29cpaid | +1,234.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$982 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.68per pick | 16cpaid | +1,246.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 41c | 984.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.07 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0279…02a0backed Yes | 2c | 980$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$958.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.98per pick | 2cpaid | +4,445.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9542…888bbacked Yes | 4c | 961.1$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.1 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.31per pick | 22cpaid | +704.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…dfefbacked Yes | 2c | 944.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.43 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.94per pick | 6cpaid | +2,773.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…d87bbacked Yes | 25c | 880$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +178.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197c…9b94backed Yes | 2c | 875.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.09 | 130 | 23.8%31 W · 99 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes | 3c | 784.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.97per pick | 3cpaid | +3,038.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes | 2c | 750$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +599.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 746.23$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.32 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 2c | 723.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.4 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +166%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 22c | 715$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.8 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d0…3d43backed Yes | 11c | 704.09$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.09 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +979.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 64c | 654.25$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.63 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked Yes | 5c | 653.64$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +189.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…820cbacked No | 41c | 643.56$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.87 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e9…63d0backed No | 75c | 626.17$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.01 | 178 | 59.6%106 W · 72 L | +18.3wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…693cbacked Yes | 9c | 606.71$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +267.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes | 29c | 600$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.72 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2121…5f82backed No | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 547.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.89 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 2c | 533.49$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$523.17 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 3c | 500.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…c5c4backed No | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3073…7c11backed No | 15c | 499.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.99 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a1…5e8fbacked Yes | 65c | 474.37$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes | 18c | 465.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.7 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 39c | 440.91$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.91 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes | 40c | 440.27$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407c…49aabacked Yes | 5c | 437.52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.71 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 14cpaid | +122.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…6679backed No | 72c | 422.42$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.17 | 153 | 62.7%96 W · 57 L | +22.4wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…1c68backed Yes | 5c | 420.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +2,004.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd653…bf96backed Yes | 4c | 411.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.29 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.9wins | +0.95per pick | 5cpaid | +3,947%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 406.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.48 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes | 41c | 400$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.6 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5240…f84ebacked No | 79c | 379.38$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71c…20b3backed Yes | 45c | 360.88$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 70c | 355.38$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.28 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…aaecbacked No | 75c | 348.8$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.4 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 36c | 340.32$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.87 | 87 | 33.3%29 W · 58 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…74efbacked No | 9c | 337.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98b…6086backed Yes | 35c | 321.06$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.72 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb885…e677backed Yes | 3c | 319$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.96 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +112.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes | 27c | 300$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.03 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 52c | 289$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff36…3698backed Yes | 7c | 277.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ac…eab5backed Yes | 10c | 272.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.85 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +471.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…47e1backed No | 75c | 267.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cc…a88fbacked No | 9c | 222.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…e142backed Yes | 29c | 221.92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.18 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4b9…ca00backed No | 9c | 212.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…7a96backed No | 18c | 210.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?this page
- USD.AI FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $150M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $250M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $2B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $3B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?No won
- USD.AI FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $650M one day after launch?Yes won
- USD.AI FDV above $6B one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.