TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

USD.AI FDV above $800M one day after launch?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$401,831
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$476,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $401,831 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3257…2f3bbacked No38c15,000$5,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,699.997545.3%34 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcae6…a0e7backed Yes3c13,138$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,733.26757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick31cpaid+495.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked Yes44c7,814$3,466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,348.734847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd96…cbdcbacked Yes2c7,105$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,995.411124.3%27 W · 84 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+153.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ca4…f2d4backed Yes62c5,600$3,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1282030%6 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes2c4,723$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,643.842061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8262…eddebacked Yes33c4,022$1,342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,679.8214335.7%51 W · 92 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c4,000$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.5932.2%2 W · 91 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…33c1backed Yes19c2,961$549 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,411.331478.6%11 W · 3 L+4.5wins+0.32per pick46cpaid+133.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xc916…e32ebacked Yes21c2,944$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,313.012321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeae5…0720backed Yes5c2,728$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.834740.4%19 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+47.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a91…ac8fbacked Yes38c2,604$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,603.983775.7%28 W · 9 L+7.8wins+0.21per pick55cpaid+25.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes44c2,257$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.441145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.23per pick22cpaid+93.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd7be…ee50backed Yes7c2,117$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,967.17633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+651.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes2c2,029$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,986.931435.7%5 W · 9 L+3.4wins+0.24per pick11cpaid+995.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x402e…5d12backed No77c2,000$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5403740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4fca…f72ebacked Yes1c2,000$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,97113131.3%41 W · 90 L+12.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+164.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa2d1…62c2backed Yes46c1,983$911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,072.788558.8%50 W · 35 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa09b…071ebacked Yes3c1,820$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.417418.9%14 W · 60 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick24cpaid+35.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x986e…005fbacked Yes3c1,712$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.21100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick3cpaid+3,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x011b…e197backed Yes2c1,692$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,653.081100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,247.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f2a…d8c9backed Yes14c1,663$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,422.58580%4 W · 1 L+2.5wins+0.50per pick30cpaid+404.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x356a…bfeabacked Yes4c1,650$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.044531.1%14 W · 31 L+5.5wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+265%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1332…d768backed Yes2c1,634$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,599.691100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,661.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8359…35ecbacked Yes1c1,628$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,611.721100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.99per pick1cpaid+9,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbe4c…a603backed Yes2c1,601$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.381100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,661.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes2c1,600$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,570333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick6cpaid+1,677.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7b…b21ebacked Yes2c1,600$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.44per pick23cpaid+1,824.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9074…5051backed Yes3c1,587$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,536.221100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,025%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9965…b6cbbacked Yes44c1,582$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.393333.3%11 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73c8…8cd8backed Yes4c1,478$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,425.092544%11 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick31cpaid+181.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7bc…504abacked Yes25c1,467$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.533020%6 W · 24 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+287.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57f9…bcd9backed No69c1,458$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+41.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0fc…add8backed Yes42c1,357$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$790.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+119.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x376d…78cabacked No77c1,340$1,032 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,031.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa081…77e6backed Yes8c1,337$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,224.024100%4 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+588.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x58aa…a481backed Yes62c1,310$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.534959.2%29 W · 20 L+3.5wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x969c…5266backed Yes16c1,305$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,099.721283.3%10 W · 2 L+4.4wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+159.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xae7f…d4febacked Yes4c1,284$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.561258.3%7 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.29per pick30cpaid+657.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3fd3…30c5backed Yes25c1,254$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$940.081435.7%5 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick35cpaid-18.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3bd8…cd6cbacked Yes8c1,217$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.731442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick31cpaid+246.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x57e4…835ebacked No77c1,184$918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.737759.7%46 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8085…ea17backed Yes48c1,029$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$533.792268.2%15 W · 7 L+8.5wins+0.38per pick30cpaid+162.8%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x0bb5…f420backed Yes2c1,021$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.94650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+978.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x70da…2599backed Yes2c1,005$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.91100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,900%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes4c1,000$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965580%4 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.51per pick29cpaid+1,234.5%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x77aa…8d9cbacked Yes2c1,000$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$982683.3%5 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.68per pick16cpaid+1,246.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes41c984.67$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.076931.9%22 W · 47 L-5.2wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-42.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0279…02a0backed Yes2c980$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$958.441100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.98per pick2cpaid+4,445.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9542…888bbacked Yes4c961.1$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.11353.8%7 W · 6 L+4.1wins+0.31per pick22cpaid+704.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xb824…dfefbacked Yes2c944.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.94per pick6cpaid+2,773.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xaf9d…d87bbacked Yes25c880$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6602100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+178.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x197c…9b94backed Yes2c875.6$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.0913023.8%31 W · 99 L-0.6wins0.00per pick24cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4bf…e97bbacked Yes3c784.72$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$759.721100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.97per pick3cpaid+3,038.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4cb…001bbacked Yes2c750$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.751030%3 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick18cpaid+599.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c746.23$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$706.327663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes2c723.49$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$710.42917.2%5 W · 24 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick16cpaid+166%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes22c715$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.87334.2%25 W · 48 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d0…3d43backed Yes11c704.09$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.093100%3 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+979.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes64c654.25$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.634759.6%28 W · 19 L+6.1wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x98d7…f41abacked Yes5c653.64$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.081145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+189.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No41c643.56$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.873119.4%6 W · 25 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick28cpaid-65.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e9…63d0backed No75c626.17$472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.0117859.6%106 W · 72 L+18.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+21%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2b89…693cbacked Yes9c606.71$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+267.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7fb…eca8backed Yes29c600$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.721450%7 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2121…5f82backed No78c600$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4682259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes3c547.4$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$532.891662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed Yes2c533.49$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523.17214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+146.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No3c500.25$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.975111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xacf0…c5c4backed No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54037.5%15 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3073…7c11backed No15c499.97$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.991040%4 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick28cpaid-7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x07a1…5e8fbacked Yes65c474.37$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.03633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe4e6…4bd4backed Yes18c465.25$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.78854.5%48 W · 40 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+2.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed Yes39c440.91$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.9123841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6539…f6cdbacked Yes40c440.27$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2639920.2%20 W · 79 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407c…49aabacked Yes5c437.52$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.7111421.9%25 W · 89 L+8.5wins+0.07per pick14cpaid+122.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6a68…6679backed No72c422.42$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.1715362.7%96 W · 57 L+22.4wins+0.15per pick48cpaid+21.8%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xede1…1c68backed Yes5c420.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.821100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+2,004.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd653…bf96backed Yes4c411.21$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.293100%3 W · 0 L+2.9wins+0.95per pick5cpaid+3,947%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes6c406.42$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.483495.7%20 W · 329 L-25.3wins-0.07per pick13cpaid-66.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe8de…e1d4backed Yes41c400$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.64637%17 W · 29 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5240…f84ebacked No79c379.38$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd71c…20b3backed Yes45c360.88$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked No70c355.38$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.284136.6%15 W · 26 L-5.9wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5f22…aaecbacked No75c348.8$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.41573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No36c340.32$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.878733.3%29 W · 58 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-40.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07fa…74efbacked No9c337.08$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98b…6086backed Yes35c321.06$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.721947.4%9 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-25.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb885…e677backed Yes3c319$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.962352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc507…5d1ebacked Yes27c300$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2193855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.2wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcdc0…dcd8backed Yes62c300$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.033560%21 W · 14 L+4.9wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+25.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes52c289$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.72560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid-9.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff36…3698backed Yes7c277.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.251361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+81.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ac…eab5backed Yes10c272.64$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+471.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5565…47e1backed No75c267.96$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick68cpaid-8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cc…a88fbacked No9c222.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698a…e142backed Yes29c221.92$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.181346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+33.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4b9…ca00backed No9c212.77$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2050%0 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3057…7a96backed No18c210.1$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.45937.3%22 W · 37 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.