Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83e9c78382289346084aa3a941ca456472a37eb8664a02bd9eeec6a8369ac2f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,149 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 22c | 362.67$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 7c | 319.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 17c | 240.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 18c | 228.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.79 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 76c | 223.12$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 9c | 211.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 76c | 177.99$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 164.87$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 160.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 16c | 139.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed Yes | 22c | 137.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffe0…919ebacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 14c | 122.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 111.05$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.51 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 234 | 7.3%17 W · 217 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 78c | 98.61$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 78c | 96.31$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 94.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfe…5b91backed Yes | 23c | 86.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 24c | 85.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 18c | 56.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 24c | 53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b27…7d50backed Yes | 31c | 32.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 19.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 80c | 18.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 13.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.17 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 12°C or below on March 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 13°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 15°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C or higher on March 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.