Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6427ad3c6369400e119452debd5e97556c081843612fa9ebf2407ae0f747d9e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,073
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 4c | 6,626$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,381.37 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,960 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 1,948$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.93 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 14c | 1,678$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.42 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed No | 26c | 1,361$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.22 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed No | 22c | 1,320$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.72 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 20c | 1,099$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.97 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 6c | 1,009$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 39c | 839.45$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.33 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 41c | 678.28$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.57 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 69c | 539.74$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.13 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 499.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 451.86$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 64c | 413.25$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.27 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 409.98$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.97 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 407.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.64 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…03f1backed Yes | 50c | 398.8$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.08 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7c…1439backed Yes | 5c | 379.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.69 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 6cpaid | +164.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…f29dbacked Yes | 53c | 379.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.57 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…4906backed No | 57c | 350$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2357…2529backed Yes | 43c | 350$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 6c | 316$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.21 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 307.87$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.24 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x860d…fa0cbacked Yes | 8c | 297.94$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.1 | 242 | 16.9%41 W · 201 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 37c | 287.97$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 25c | 285.21$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.65 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 21c | 251.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 42c | 229.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.38 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e53…14e7backed No | 74c | 207.35$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.71 | 150 | 27.3%41 W · 109 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed Yes | 9c | 205$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.55 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…facdbacked Yes | 78c | 200$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.6wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 60c | 197.98$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.79 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 21c | 182.04$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11c0…f014backed No | 67c | 158.66$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.64 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 36c | 150$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.72 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 24c | 150$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +180.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed No | 19c | 149.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 31c | 132.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.65 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 73c | 130.58$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.06 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7660…c588backed Yes | 80c | 116.16$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.23 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 114.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 34c | 110$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 38c | 109.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.57 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe170…3c0bbacked Yes | 25c | 105.33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 10c | 101.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 79c | 101.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.26 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9652…1ab4backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -81%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.15 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6405…7d19backed No | 31c | 99.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed Yes | 80c | 99.09$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 97.84$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 26c | 96.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.64 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfca3…93eabacked Yes | 50c | 92.58$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.04 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…6641backed Yes | 17c | 90.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 11cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 34c | 88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…b440backed No | 14c | 85.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked No | 47c | 80.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6e…cd39backed Yes | 76c | 73.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025b…1793backed Yes | 35c | 71.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 126 | 32.5%41 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 71.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.16 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc3…7d41backed Yes | 19c | 68.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 73 | 23.3%17 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 15c | 67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed No | 70c | 66.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.57 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.16 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…97efbacked No | 78c | 57.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.13 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 71cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x934e…a5b1backed No | 72c | 57.03$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed Yes | 70c | 53.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed No | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.93 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…851dbacked Yes | 31c | 48.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.75 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 51c | 48.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0313…d275backed Yes | 65c | 46.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d26…a28bbacked No | 37c | 44.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa174…f408backed Yes | 68c | 44.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -87.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…bb6bbacked Yes | 68c | 44.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9bb…c717backed Yes | 45c | 44.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…8c49backed Yes | 69c | 43.73$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 70c | 41.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34b9…fc5cbacked Yes | 26c | 40.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked No | 67c | 40.72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 54c | 36.38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a5…379abacked No | 75c | 36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 66cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…7881backed No | 71c | 35.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 43c | 33.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…4b98backed Yes | 45c | 30.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 29.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 57c | 23.51$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x242b…0078backed Yes | 65c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 59c | 22.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.49 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed No | 71c | 21.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e79…d10ebacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x343c…1796backed Yes | 73c | 19.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.