Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3213f564f6f83d850285170ea8df95fc34dad228d9bee9a85b83bc55c536584
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 23c | 1,101$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.4 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,018$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2033…7a6cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,005$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f36…0c01backed Yes | 43c | 764.16$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x916e…2be2backed Yes | 3c | 763$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 738.9$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.54 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 71c | 644.16$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.27 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…1480backed Yes | 2c | 641.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 105 | 18.1%19 W · 86 L | -8.8wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed Yes | 5c | 606$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 588.41$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.44 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6422…a30ebacked Yes | 4c | 579.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 10c | 572.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 22c | 466.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…6387backed Yes | 23c | 462.8$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.03 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 10c | 461.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…05e4backed Yes | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 66c | 314.53$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.55 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd692…3a89backed Yes | 16c | 313.43$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2138…8a11backed Yes | 29c | 279.86$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.77 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 43c | 256.28$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.76 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 232.14$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.7 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 10c | 216.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60a0…da0dbacked Yes | 10c | 210.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 30cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 199.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd396…609fbacked Yes | 27c | 198.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 78c | 197.53$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.3 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 22c | 191.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…dd57backed Yes | 35c | 188.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 64c | 187.36$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 40c | 166.59$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 54c | 163.69$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 160.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9451…3ec2backed Yes | 14c | 156.22$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +134.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 25c | 156$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 35c | 129.87$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed No | 60c | 108.34$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…0b02backed Yes | 11c | 102.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e6…0f82backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 34c | 96.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 18c | 93.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e75…9311backed Yes | 12c | 87.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 51c | 85.27$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa595…cdf1backed Yes | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 66c | 76.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ee…1e97backed Yes | 19c | 75.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…7881backed Yes | 16c | 74.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7eed…b9e9backed Yes | 17c | 74.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797b…27a5backed Yes | 16c | 74.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 54c | 69.9$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 51c | 69.08$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 57c | 65.48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 63c | 62.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfa…73acbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 1,022 | 30.6%313 W · 709 L | +17.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34e4…e1e1backed No | 57c | 57.76$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 53.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46a8…9baabacked Yes | 47c | 53.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 53.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f43…a080backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0259…33c9backed Yes | 41c | 49.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 51c | 48.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 71c | 46.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3843…7c9dbacked Yes | 40c | 42.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9446…bee3backed Yes | 44c | 42.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 48c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b22…8945backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 253 | 41.5%105 W · 148 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…91cfbacked No | 67c | 37.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.46 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd27…0af7backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5f…76d4backed No | 55c | 36.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -6.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 35c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 47c | 35.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9b…76bbbacked No | 66c | 32.84$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 35c | 32.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 31.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f27…7d0dbacked Yes | 47c | 30.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked No | 74c | 28.24$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…b547backed Yes | 43c | 27.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8071…8b04backed No | 60c | 26.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x790d…2217backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5817…94f0backed Yes | 44c | 24.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499c…d24dbacked No | 60c | 20.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 50c | 20.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.19 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 60c | 20.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…4fecbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…4a80backed No | 77c | 14.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.