Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc7deb85da08e222cbfe9a04009db87a267c305361576e507e9ceae2bc1389b2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0c0…c0a5backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 884.33$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.13 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked No | 71c | 790.6$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.56 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 624.05$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd645…a7a3backed Yes | 7c | 503.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 5c | 486.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 466.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 455.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.92 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa06a…7881backed Yes | 2c | 450.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked No | 69c | 418.67$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.2 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 5c | 412.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 18c | 397.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 19c | 380.04$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.87 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe31e…ec88backed Yes | 4c | 375.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 559 | 19.1%107 W · 452 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3eec…9d96backed Yes | 14c | 374$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e7…c00cbacked Yes | 7c | 329.69$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 7c | 327.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x341b…4a23backed Yes | 7c | 294.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…d4b1backed Yes | 17c | 240.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 19c | 236.55$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 215.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…d1b6backed Yes | 19c | 206.49$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 19c | 202.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.54 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x918e…a29bbacked Yes | 21c | 196.67$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 6c | 182.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Yes | 17c | 172.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae1…ec0abacked Yes | 32c | 171.4$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 6c | 171.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 22c | 145.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 8c | 129.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 18c | 114$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 73c | 108$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd255…3c50backed Yes | 34c | 101.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 74 | 31.1%23 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 74c | 94.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…c7a6backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 85.27$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e4…eec0backed Yes | 23c | 85.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 29c | 79.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…1af7backed No | 76c | 78.79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.79 | 201 | 46.3%93 W · 108 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa31…471abacked No | 77c | 65.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf864…496fbacked No | 76c | 63.91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 96 | 43.8%42 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8940…8506backed Yes | 18c | 57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…446cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 26c | 44.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6113…501dbacked No | 68c | 36.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.27per pick | 63cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…ffeabacked Yes | 32c | 35.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d65…589ebacked No | 80c | 29.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…47e1backed No | 80c | 25.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…b5f2backed No | 73c | 21.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 133 | 60.9%81 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed No | 73c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed No | 74c | 19.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 12.86$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 40-41°F on February 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 44°F or higher on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on February 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on February 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on February 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.