Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x78906919c7813b1542d4ffc306b022a2823992ac3fa1ced7e538b0b5a8e38a58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $137,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa4ce…d90bbacked No | 9c | 11,126$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked No | 1c | 4,098$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.94 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 48c | 3,316$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,716.66 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 6c | 3,158$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,972.32 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed No | 1c | 1,787$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 3c | 1,656$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa524…9c79backed Yes | 46c | 1,602$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.96 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 5c | 1,528$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.89 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 49c | 1,177$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.18 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed No | 10c | 999.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 60c | 974.76$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 14c | 952.68$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.08 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…d9edbacked No | 15c | 933.29$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 53c | 891.55$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.55 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 16c | 879$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.69 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 2c | 810.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.67 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed No | 16c | 620.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 603.92$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.62 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed Yes | 33c | 601.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.69 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed No | 14c | 599.9$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed No | 12c | 572.05$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.98 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 559.36$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.9 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 22c | 549$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 121 | 54.5%66 W · 55 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 6c | 528.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$499.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5843…2808backed Yes | 41c | 491.83$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 483.35$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 70c | 482.43$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.87 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 43c | 430.48$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.84 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 31c | 423.43$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 69c | 409.26$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.59 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked No | 47c | 366.66$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.94 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 34c | 332.51$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.55 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 73c | 305.96$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.62 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 77c | 300$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.37 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…61dfbacked Yes | 4c | 294.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.96per pick | 4cpaid | +2,366.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cef…51e1backed No | 64c | 291.24$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 63c | 288.22$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 5c | 251.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.14 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 54c | 250$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc9d…d590backed No | 55c | 232.54$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.48 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd9…055dbacked No | 5c | 227.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 55c | 221.57$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.08 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 212.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd72…9a13backed No | 27c | 187.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 44c | 184.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 183.94$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 39c | 150.22$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.38 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b11dbacked No | 34c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked No | 46c | 145.19$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 103 | 27.2%28 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed No | 56c | 144.26$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.31 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2b…2cd8backed Yes | 53c | 143.39$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.39 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 25c | 134$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 69c | 133.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.77 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed Yes | 40c | 130.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.04 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 41c | 128.42$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa20a…fe65backed Yes | 66c | 124.81$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked No | 64c | 124.76$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 20c | 114.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked No | 44c | 101.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…2040backed No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe684…5b3bbacked Yes | 51c | 98.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b7b…5838backed No | 59c | 90.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…65e3backed No | 44c | 82.52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac0…1132backed No | 18c | 78.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d0…88f6backed No | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 66c | 66.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 76c | 65.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4b…4fe3backed Yes | 77c | 59.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.67 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Yes | 53c | 57.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcde2…ae43backed No | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…727fbacked No | 56c | 56.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6140backed No | 48c | 52.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 30c | 51.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked No | 58c | 51.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 36c | 50.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…3159backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 38c | 48.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 61c | 48.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaba…e07dbacked No | 62c | 48.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 79c | 48.31$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fb…9c9bbacked No | 62c | 48.2$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked No | 59c | 42.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98c…8f64backed Yes | 47c | 42.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 70c | 39.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 27c | 38.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 57c | 37.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed No | 59c | 33.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3090…852dbacked No | 66c | 30.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dc…d8a4backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x709a…6170backed Yes | 77c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b54…6611backed No | 68c | 23.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…4bc5backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.