Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x080549b67b5196beec1bd13a7ca63e0c9c8011318eddeed012bad317055e1b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,036
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,663
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,036 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a18…364cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,131$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 89 | 46.1%41 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 5,722$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.97 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed Yes | 8c | 4,352$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.07 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 9c | 3,065$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.91 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 2c | 2,828$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8df5…d9edbacked Yes | 4c | 2,699$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 2c | 2,645$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked Yes | 2c | 2,459$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.39 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe689…159fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,839$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.01 | 203 | 42.9%87 W · 116 L | +20.8wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x745b…0b9abacked Yes | 26c | 1,692$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.38 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 1,611$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.66 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 5c | 1,248$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.17 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,020$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 5c | 914.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 811.08$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.17 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 76c | 791.05$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.03 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 2c | 682.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes | 10c | 515.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…c9f9backed Yes | 2c | 503.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 6c | 484$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed Yes | 6c | 457.52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 12c | 416.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd9f…d10fbacked Yes | 8c | 399.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3efd…b982backed Yes | 4c | 373.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 5c | 373.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 6c | 343.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 18c | 325.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 272.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc23…d4cbbacked Yes | 7c | 236.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 230.34$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 6c | 198.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 5c | 195.02$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 8c | 155.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 143.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 19c | 131.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 14c | 128.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 126.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 125.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 120.2$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 16c | 112.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 100.27$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed No | 80c | 88.91$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.12 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…65e3backed Yes | 15c | 82.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 25c | 79.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…55b9backed Yes | 19c | 79.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 27c | 61.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 74c | 59.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 80c | 59.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 56$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed Yes | 29c | 52.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 50.1$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa05…6140backed Yes | 28c | 43.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -45%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 35.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…592ebacked No | 79c | 34.58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 73c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 78c | 32.04$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 30.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 77c | 26.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbaa…b5aabacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.