Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa43a3498e6556b2ac1776ac689320d886dbac4b0a4af221eacb1c83b31fe6911
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 3c | 1,800$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5018…84fbbacked Yes | 8c | 1,549$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.15 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,423$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.17 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe683…812cbacked Yes | 20c | 965.06$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 11c | 889.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3888…5a85backed Yes | 5c | 712.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d0…2295backed Yes | 13c | 709.82$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fea…5685backed No | 77c | 674.15$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.46 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 12c | 600.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.19 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 565.6$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 5c | 523.61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 483.99$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a99…e614backed Yes | 7c | 465.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 181 | 16.6%30 W · 151 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 37c | 399.99$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.95 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 6c | 398.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 7c | 390$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8f…2c14backed Yes | 9c | 374.52$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…7016backed No | 64c | 357.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.65 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 6c | 348.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 41c | 331.65$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…30acbacked Yes | 6c | 325$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +48.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 14c | 311.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 8c | 290.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 76c | 264.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d6…017cbacked Yes | 12c | 260.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 238 | 23.9%57 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…9427backed Yes | 19c | 260$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 44 | 38.6%17 W · 27 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c3…ac62backed Yes | 9c | 255.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd65a…6599backed Yes | 13c | 244.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 78c | 233.93$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 9c | 229.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45cc…b0c6backed Yes | 9c | 215$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ccf…8aa6backed Yes | 5c | 214.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 207.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 202.64$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed No | 71c | 164$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.56 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 160$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 32c | 150.27$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 26c | 148.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa530…88f6backed Yes | 24c | 142.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1041…f452backed Yes | 17c | 121.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0e…7786backed Yes | 34c | 112.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 100.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked Yes | 26c | 99.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84a9…dbc4backed Yes | 27c | 93.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 57 | 21.1%12 W · 45 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 84.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked Yes | 26c | 77.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 65c | 74.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed No | 71c | 72.78$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…50e4backed No | 66c | 64.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed No | 66c | 63.89$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 22c | 63.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 33c | 60.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82c7…05aabacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 56.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a87…e685backed Yes | 25c | 55.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 29c | 51.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 28c | 51.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…9d0dbacked Yes | 22c | 51.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +152.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1f3…dd31backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.32per pick | 53cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e75…7b2dbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbb…2faabacked Yes | 42c | 47.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3b…b989backed No | 74c | 42.43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 78c | 38.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 61c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed No | 70c | 27.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…22ebbacked Yes | 40c | 27.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf884…0364backed No | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 42c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed No | 76c | 24.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 166 | 27.7%46 W · 120 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 77c | 23.98$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…a31ebacked No | 75c | 21.81$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 74c | 21.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b11dbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 74c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01b3…52debacked No | 77c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 21°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 23°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 24°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.