Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or higher on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf4ba11d9888f6e2188f0001f0f0df3c5ed16dac3881c442e9526765b3364681
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,460 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffd8…6d54backed No | 2c | 3,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 14cpaid | +185%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a0…4e39backed Yes | 74c | 404.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.75 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.22per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 63c | 374.88$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.31 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 7c | 356.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 8c | 300$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 20c | 280.86$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.82 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 9c | 238.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 7c | 214.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 22cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…2acabacked Yes | 20c | 202.16$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.94 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 15c | 200$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 31c | 193$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 20c | 100.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 100.9$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9887…fe5cbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +71.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 11c | 97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…9df3backed Yes | 67c | 93.31$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.69 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 82.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 61c | 79.33$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03d8…5e9abacked Yes | 63c | 78.29$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 36c | 69.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 30c | 69.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 66.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbd…e8e7backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.1 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked No | 39c | 55.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed Yes | 30c | 45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.29 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 40c | 43.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 67c | 41.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 40.46$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03eb…47b0backed No | 38c | 37.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb00…5461backed Yes | 66c | 30.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 27.94$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 52c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6706…e61cbacked Yes | 73c | 25.29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce0…c846backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 62c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed Yes | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C or higher on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 12°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 13°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 14°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 15°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 16°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 17°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 18°C on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 9°C or below on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.