TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3 Playoffs

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Heroicof 3DMAX, Heroic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$233,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$265,361

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $233,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 315 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x30c7…ac3bbacked Heroic59c24,929$14,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,220.9775652.6%398 W · 358 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa225…12a7backed 3DMAX41c16,499$6,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,764.45425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-56.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3da8…80c3backed Heroic55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9633359.8%199 W · 134 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebc…a33dbacked Heroic80c8,688$6,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.0763157.1%360 W · 271 L+40.1wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed 3DMAX29c6,838$1,951 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,950.642,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Heroic61c4,542$2,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,775.7514846.6%69 W · 79 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed 3DMAX31c4,489$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.842,50841%1,029 W · 1,479 L-115.5wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Heroic73c4,458$3,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.213,22551.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L+88.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4ec…c574backed Heroic63c4,455$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,654.7848350.9%246 W · 237 L-20.9wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-10%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8a80…11c5backed 3DMAX32c4,260$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.1575438.9%293 W · 461 L-38.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-24.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Heroic69c4,110$2,841 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.844,22849.2%2,080 W · 2,148 L+59.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa34…6628backed 3DMAX40c3,999$1,606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,606.53050%15 W · 15 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Heroic61c3,757$2,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,465.213652.8%19 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Heroic68c3,360$2,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.292,21447.5%1,052 W · 1,162 L-5.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed 3DMAX24c3,225$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$767.591,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdf80…3259backed 3DMAX38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.9510056%56 W · 44 L+6.8wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbe8…bb28backed 3DMAX39c2,821$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,100.322044.5%98 W · 122 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked 3DMAX26c2,521$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.643,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Heroic60c2,500$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0001,08150.9%550 W · 531 L+37.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked 3DMAX33c2,461$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.212,13642.9%916 W · 1,220 L-68.1wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-20%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked 3DMAX45c2,427$1,089 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.2619229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ca…6a8bbacked 3DMAX39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78075245.5%342 W · 410 L-21.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked Heroic61c1,893$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.91,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbc…b344backed 3DMAX27c1,884$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.740542%170 W · 235 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked 3DMAX38c1,775$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.3736453.8%196 W · 168 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed 3DMAX34c1,700$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5799551.6%49 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed 3DMAX38c1,700$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.991,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed 3DMAX12c1,602$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.411,40738.9%547 W · 860 L-41.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed 3DMAX38c1,577$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.8938841.8%162 W · 226 L+8.1wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6840…6003backed Heroic64c1,558$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.118361.4%51 W · 32 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e5e…7315backed 3DMAX38c1,435$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.0222943.7%100 W · 129 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed 3DMAX35c1,392$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487.1161948%297 W · 322 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x118c…3fffbacked 3DMAX39c1,380$541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$540.794353.5%23 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Heroic69c1,377$950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.62,32645.1%1,049 W · 1,277 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Heroic78c1,352$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.086,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89eb…cff9backed Heroic62c1,290$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.3236450.3%183 W · 181 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4cfd…5c91backed Heroic78c1,254$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.4112627%34 W · 92 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked 3DMAX45c1,225$551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.147,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Heroic77c1,175$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.792,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked 3DMAX19c1,129$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.0266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af3…8598backed 3DMAX46c1,112$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51014749.7%73 W · 74 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed 3DMAX29c1,100$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.855,28731.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L-383.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-37.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3f34…ed6abacked 3DMAX26c1,071$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.2921536.3%78 W · 137 L-11.8wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked 3DMAX41c1,062$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.429352.7%49 W · 44 L+10.0wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa16b…b541backed Heroic48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.8443455.1%239 W · 195 L+13.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked 3DMAX41c1,041$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42763541.9%266 W · 369 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f2…1848backed 3DMAX44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.572948.3%14 W · 15 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1607…79bebacked 3DMAX1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10575.3%3 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Heroic56c999.99$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44016240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed 3DMAX44c999.99$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.9920949.3%103 W · 106 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed Heroic53c975.62$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.3713454.5%73 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Heroic79c975$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.123360.6%20 W · 13 L+4.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+42.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked Heroic62c974.99$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.522266.7%148 W · 74 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked 3DMAX30c960.84$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.914,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5984…76ebbacked 3DMAX38c946.95$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.8452636.5%192 W · 334 L+18.8wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc33…eb35backed Heroic60c940.46$569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.492853.6%15 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7380…9019backed 3DMAX41c936.48$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.961729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.4wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-33%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed 3DMAX45c900$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40561034.3%209 W · 401 L-12.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe283…7190backed Heroic56c892.86$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.8696545.7%441 W · 524 L+10.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a0f…d336backed 3DMAX41c875.61$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3591926.3%5 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick43cpaid-22%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf876…1deebacked Heroic58c868.22$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.2219546.2%90 W · 105 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Heroic70c858.49$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.555,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed 3DMAX35c828.91$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.3380942.3%342 W · 467 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Heroic56c799.99$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3522,43444.6%1,085 W · 1,349 L-64.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6770…c3bdbacked 3DMAX24c771.89$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.0663038.6%243 W · 387 L-26.4wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-26.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed 3DMAX39c763$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.725,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe601…84ecbacked Heroic62c750$465 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28548845.7%223 W · 265 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Heroic62c706.45$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.452,06641.5%858 W · 1,208 L-49.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa0d5…9727backed 3DMAX32c693.8$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.1617438.5%67 W · 107 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a62…fc1abacked Heroic57c687.19$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.0913834.8%48 W · 90 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-11%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked 3DMAX13c687.12$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.9938032.1%122 W · 258 L-18.7wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaa6c…a9b3backed 3DMAX44c679.02$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001,16354.3%631 W · 532 L-38.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked 3DMAX38c627$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.8844747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1025…7e11backed Heroic60c604$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.5255941%229 W · 330 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292b…23cebacked 3DMAX41c602$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.821827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.5wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-51.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab9f…75f1backed 3DMAX19c601.31$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.2928434.9%99 W · 185 L-11.7wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed 3DMAX38c600.07$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.0399148.3%479 W · 512 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…efffbacked Heroic57c600$342 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25822241.4%92 W · 130 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-16.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b26…57e9backed Heroic63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.91,48558%862 W · 623 L+66.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed 3DMAX41c596$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.367245.8%33 W · 39 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab96…989fbacked 3DMAX39c561.47$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9722645.1%102 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x257e…ca61backed 3DMAX26c555.39$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.8513142%55 W · 76 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xad2a…99a3backed Heroic63c555$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.3520045.5%91 W · 109 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14e7…a32cbacked 3DMAX26c551$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.781,30241.2%536 W · 766 L-50.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed 3DMAX37c544.79$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20033553.4%179 W · 156 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40e3…5627backed 3DMAX38c542.79$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.7540558.8%238 W · 167 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5135…7217backed Heroic62c539$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.821,62052.7%853 W · 767 L+57.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked 3DMAX20c500$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.8375833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca81…f2abbacked Heroic56c499.99$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22035744.3%158 W · 199 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7de3…d59bbacked 3DMAX38c499.99$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.9913354.9%73 W · 60 L+10.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x42a1…a8e9backed Heroic45c476.05$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.5527037.8%102 W · 168 L-9.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed Heroic69c475.87$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.822567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5076…711abacked Heroic65c474.95$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.784254.8%23 W · 19 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Heroic74c470.44$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.5472353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9f…45debacked Heroic57c451.28$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.439341.9%39 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb21b…88f9backed 3DMAX39c448.72$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17547054%254 W · 216 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed 3DMAX36c447.51$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.141649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked 3DMAX22c446$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe766…7843backed 3DMAX6c445.47$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2812531.2%39 W · 86 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-32.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1982…bc7bbacked 3DMAX52c427.35$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.4331845.3%144 W · 174 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.