Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f79576ea1b7d4dba010d55b4f29c87820b798fda849704102e510845f698cd9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked GamerLegion | 26c | 5,714$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,479.85 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed GamerLegion | 0c | 4,910$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.77 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e618backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 4,637$3,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.25 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…a188backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 4,224$3,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.87 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked GamerLegion | 26c | 3,905$1,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,006.99 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda34…01a8backed GamerLegion | 23c | 3,708$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$849.19 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…bafcbacked Natus Vincere | 78c | 3,068$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.58 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed GamerLegion | 24c | 2,227$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.88 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ab…f282backed GamerLegion | 27c | 2,000$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.83 | 197 | 42.1%83 W · 114 L | -12.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 1,970$1,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x563b…774bbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 1,943$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.16 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed GamerLegion | 26c | 1,249$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.06 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 808.04$596 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.76 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bcb…b05abacked GamerLegion | 19c | 466.75$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.68 | 380 | 49.2%187 W · 193 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +168.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked GamerLegion | 23c | 446.51$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.87 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0738…6392backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 394.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.74 | 212 | 64.2%136 W · 76 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Natus Vincere | 79c | 376.27$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.27 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.9wins | -0.30per pick | 46cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked GamerLegion | 15c | 375$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 355.17$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.79 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 325$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…1816backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 313.7$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.7 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 312$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked GamerLegion | 11c | 305$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…5d8ebacked Natus Vincere | 76c | 276.43$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69ba…c976backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 271.19$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ab…e3a9backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 270$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 72c | 259.66$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.17 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 202.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed GamerLegion | 22c | 199.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed GamerLegion | 25c | 197$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 805 | 44.6%359 W · 446 L | -25.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed GamerLegion | 16c | 181.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 127 | 20.5%26 W · 101 L | -22.6wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed GamerLegion | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa28b…9d4cbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 141.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…39dabacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 141.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed GamerLegion | 26c | 134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed GamerLegion | 28c | 118$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed GamerLegion | 18c | 114.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked GamerLegion | 28c | 109.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed GamerLegion | 12c | 108.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 138 | 27.5%38 W · 100 L | -15.0wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed GamerLegion | 24c | 101.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked GamerLegion | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 176 | 38.6%68 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -6.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed GamerLegion | 29c | 99.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5f…ced0backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 98.2$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f8…ae2ebacked GamerLegion | 21c | 90$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 29cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5199…4011backed GamerLegion | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed GamerLegion | 18c | 81.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked GamerLegion | 18c | 78.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked GamerLegion | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed GamerLegion | 25c | 72.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 71.51$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed GamerLegion | 19c | 65.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8585…cbf4backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 55.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…9e78backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 51$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa864…e47bbacked Natus Vincere | 80c | 50.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed GamerLegion | 29c | 49.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed GamerLegion | 30c | 45.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 40.4$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 38.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef48…9bc9backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 34$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…a243backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 77 | 57.1%44 W · 33 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 25.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.31 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.32per pick | 56cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fff…665bbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 20.78$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…2d80backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe53…2dbabacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 444 | 74.8%332 W · 112 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.