Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd1fc161f44876a25472ba2140f5baf4c5d42f1d46291754a6b20ce432ef6017a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $95,245
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked GamerLegion | 42c | 32,373$13,561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,561.49 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 6,744$4,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,257.1 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 49c | 6,572$3,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,321.28 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb63…a71dbacked GamerLegion | 52c | 5,000$2,583 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,583.47 | 201 | 59.7%120 W · 81 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 4,966$3,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,756.08 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9679…9315backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 4,478$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,477.61 | 160 | 58.8%94 W · 66 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 3,261$1,693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.34 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 3,192$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,553.59 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 2,711$1,853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$858.91 | 129 | 48.1%62 W · 67 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 2,050$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$679 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x62f2…07f8backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 1,852$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$852.94 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 1,792$896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.92 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed GamerLegion | 33c | 1,700$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$568 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 71c | 1,408$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.45 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed GamerLegion | 26c | 1,217$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.4 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 1,067$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.12 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 958.46$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.05 | 336 | 45.5%153 W · 183 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad6…a93cbacked GamerLegion | 44c | 802.5$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.82 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere | 61c | 720.85$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.76 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 600$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.95 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 597.01$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.01 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed GamerLegion | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…95fbbacked Natus Vincere | 54c | 466$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.36 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 52c | 441.19$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.98 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed GamerLegion | 46c | 435.61$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.38 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…c499backed GamerLegion | 48c | 417.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -5.6wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…32b1backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 312 | 45.8%143 W · 169 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Natus Vincere | 63c | 300.12$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.44 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked GamerLegion | 50c | 292.35$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.18 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8581…e74dbacked Natus Vincere | 57c | 276.35$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.44 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 268.08$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.1 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 257.19$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a60…3170backed Natus Vincere | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -6.4wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 181.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.65 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked GamerLegion | 29c | 179.14$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…1811backed GamerLegion | 14c | 159$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 318 | 35.8%114 W · 204 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Natus Vincere | 74c | 153$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…2a08backed Natus Vincere | 51c | 151.02$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.6 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 149.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed GamerLegion | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Natus Vincere | 62c | 93.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…6c31backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9718…dd82backed GamerLegion | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65e0…e51dbacked GamerLegion | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 43.3%84 W · 110 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.81 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 66.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed Natus Vincere | 53c | 54.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 43.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 43.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed Natus Vincere | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed GamerLegion | 33c | 39.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed GamerLegion | 40c | 37.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb7e0…0d8abacked GamerLegion | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 269 | 58.7%158 W · 111 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Natus Vincere | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere | 68c | 33.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2b…34babacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed Natus Vincere | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce7…7ed4backed Natus Vincere | 74c | 16.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.