Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd67fe3e8a02af7f439d1cfab52cf24a626bab264bd3b313899fcc9220c53c970
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Natus Vincereof Natus Vincere, GamerLegion
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 10,282$6,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,288.32 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 10,000$6,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,199.99 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac47…d234backed GamerLegion | 32c | 4,650$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,488 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked GamerLegion | 28c | 4,244$1,182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.88 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked GamerLegion | 27c | 3,631$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.39 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb04b…e2d4backed GamerLegion | 32c | 3,300$1,068 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068 | 161 | 42.9%69 W · 92 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…1ac6backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 3,286$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$785.64 | 476 | 60.7%289 W · 187 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed GamerLegion | 29c | 2,898$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.5 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed GamerLegion | 30c | 2,722$826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$826.24 | 209 | 49.3%103 W · 106 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed GamerLegion | 31c | 2,600$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed GamerLegion | 32c | 2,287$729 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$728.87 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed GamerLegion | 27c | 1,750$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.5 | 810 | 29.4%238 W · 572 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 1,508$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.2 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 1,115$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.84 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed GamerLegion | 34c | 823.53$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 103 | 34%35 W · 68 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 746.77$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.9 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere | 77c | 700$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…96a5backed Natus Vincere | 67c | 500$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 118 | 54.2%64 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed GamerLegion | 32c | 432.47$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.39 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed GamerLegion | 23c | 380$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfb…980cbacked GamerLegion | 36c | 359.19$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.11 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb27f…2c41backed GamerLegion | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 295.13$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.64 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x249f…fed3backed Natus Vincere | 69c | 285.67$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 626 | 50.5%316 W · 310 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed GamerLegion | 30c | 218.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.22 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20df…c787backed GamerLegion | 34c | 200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a1…5062backed Natus Vincere | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 213 | 46.5%99 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3993…cdedbacked Natus Vincere | 65c | 189.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed GamerLegion | 36c | 170.86$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed Natus Vincere | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 295 | 50.2%148 W · 147 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04e…5c25backed GamerLegion | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d9…0092backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 99.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d96…d524backed GamerLegion | 27c | 92.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 269 | 57.6%155 W · 114 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…98abbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 87.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 155 | 46.5%72 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9e…eb82backed GamerLegion | 34c | 75.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 203 | 49.8%101 W · 102 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a4…4249backed Natus Vincere | 77c | 71.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 196 | 64.8%127 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed GamerLegion | 22c | 69.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed GamerLegion | 32c | 66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f9…f351backed Natus Vincere | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed GamerLegion | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf77…f8fbbacked GamerLegion | 23c | 59.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1532…1dadbacked Natus Vincere | 70c | 49.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 226 | 54.4%123 W · 103 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbda6…6ae0backed Natus Vincere | 72c | 47.71$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed5…869abacked Natus Vincere | 73c | 38.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked Natus Vincere | 75c | 38.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -8.3wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked Natus Vincere | 66c | 37.15$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -8.0wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3a…7dcbbacked Natus Vincere | 69c | 31.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 209 | 52.6%110 W · 99 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2806…6de8backed GamerLegion | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 113 | 44.2%50 W · 63 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x504f…04b6backed Natus Vincere | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Natus Vincere | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce7…7ed4backed Natus Vincere | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO2) - DreamLeague Stage 1 Group BNatus Vincere won
- Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion - Game 2 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.