Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2ab86e7cb357bea6d34654b8f4582ea2bc1f6703a4de9c605948b311fbe354f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,375
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,375 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 35c | 740.86$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.87 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x579d…247cbacked Yes | 55c | 304.82$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.49 | 77 | 29.9%23 W · 54 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…23cebacked Yes | 47c | 293.48$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.31 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 59c | 274.64$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.8 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 213.99$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.96 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86d5…d80abacked No | 48c | 185.64$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.76 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…ddfbbacked Yes | 55c | 157$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 117 | 24.8%29 W · 88 L | -4.4wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 29c | 155$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 65c | 124.72$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 121$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 47c | 112$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 21c | 107.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 99.02$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.37 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 16c | 91.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe13d…4633backed No | 63c | 72.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3edf…e863backed No | 61c | 70$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 65c | 68.13$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.05 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 65c | 67$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf677…2efebacked Yes | 49c | 64.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.71 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -7.3wins | -0.21per pick | 58cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed No | 65c | 53.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 53.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.95 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 28c | 50.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2dd…61dcbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2854…7682backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3daf…15d6backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 62c | 49.14$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.68 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9a…dbe1backed Yes | 74c | 47.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 40c | 47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf63d…c601backed No | 59c | 46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca84…6f8dbacked No | 56c | 42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 40c | 41.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 48c | 41.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.51 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 53c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.79 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 54c | 38.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…3925backed Yes | 46c | 35.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -6.7wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6397…7b86backed Yes | 79c | 35.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d3…a178backed Yes | 65c | 35.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 53c | 34.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 40c | 32.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6962…733ebacked Yes | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x291a…a405backed No | 60c | 31.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 60c | 31.76$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93a6…b1c2backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 105 | 47.6%50 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39be…aac9backed Yes | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…7a5dbacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c1…5b62backed Yes | 36c | 28.33$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.13 | 158 | 29.7%47 W · 111 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…21cbbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff3…4b1ebacked No | 58c | 23.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 80 | 73.8%59 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 74c | 22.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 66c | 20.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x957f…aee0backed Yes | 65c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948f…0b98backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 119 | 83.2%99 W · 20 L | +21.5wins | +0.18per pick | 65cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on July 10?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 19°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 20°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on July 10?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on July 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.