TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Greta Thunberg arrested by September 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$221,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$200,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $221,205 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x22db…190fbacked Yes14c16,069$2,179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,178.8721751.6%112 W · 105 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-1.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe72…cb10backed Yes29c12,302$3,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,584.314233.3%14 W · 28 L-4.8wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes22c12,131$2,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,704.7317931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes12c11,700$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.177040%28 W · 42 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ed…c087backed Yes12c7,687$941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$940.633836.8%14 W · 24 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c6,304$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,472.5842818.7%80 W · 348 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-28.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes43c6,279$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.1740828.9%118 W · 290 L-29.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec0b…69e6backed Yes8c4,170$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.187751.9%40 W · 37 L+5.6wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a03…b226backed No39c4,068$1,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,462.621040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+22.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes29c3,648$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,04023525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes24c3,083$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.1920247%95 W · 107 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes40c2,863$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,155.4618151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+14.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c2,647$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.72721.4%1 W · 71 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-67.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes25c2,502$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.885313.2%7 W · 46 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-62.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x246b…1196backed Yes18c2,494$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.661656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed No56c2,455$1,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,071.061560%9 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes50c2,336$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.662653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2759…09bfbacked No55c2,280$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.82616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-69.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x65bf…4b91backed Yes25c2,112$523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$523.079217.4%16 W · 76 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No75c2,011$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.443672.2%26 W · 10 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+11.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xc19d…865ebacked Yes5c1,792$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7317934.6%62 W · 117 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed Yes56c1,784$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.0226423.9%63 W · 201 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-40.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes49c1,750$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$856.258058.8%47 W · 33 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes23c1,744$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.5142738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5805…fab2backed Yes7c1,724$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12050%0 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes25c1,419$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.6777636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f19…b9ffbacked No68c1,402$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.523847.4%18 W · 20 L+3.0wins+0.08per pick39cpaid-11.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ae0…1472backed No73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.96250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d77…abd5backed Yes74c1,349$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$997.172250%11 W · 11 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-14.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8309…62b1backed No75c1,330$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes22c1,250$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.492445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No76c1,175$889 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.937252.8%38 W · 34 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-10.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7994…c512backed Yes38c1,100$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.4211537.4%43 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x37a4…a487backed No40c1,056$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+69.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa7ca…faa7backed No56c1,050$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.181163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6c4…86a9backed No80c1,042$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.972347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b6…6717backed No70c1,029$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.79850%4 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d05…6a81backed Yes3c1,000$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3243212.5%54 W · 378 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick10cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes24c994.44$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.987012.9%9 W · 61 L-6.5wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-60.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes33c966.31$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.075922%13 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-30.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes21c938.26$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4319428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x900b…34bcbacked No32c894.46$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.46633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa969…3501backed No57c882.43$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.431225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-59%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes9c879.38$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.39400%0 W · 40 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes9c869.61$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.441,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes14c802.21$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4356336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes73c801.2$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.8316541.2%68 W · 97 L+0.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c794.37$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.0686542.3%366 W · 499 L-3.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes33c740.68$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.032924.1%7 W · 22 L-4.8wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-64.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked No24c738.45$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.4527233.8%92 W · 180 L+4.6wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes70c729.47$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.5426619.2%51 W · 215 L+1.2wins0.00per pick19cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcec…4ea6backed Yes25c713.64$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.9560%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x662c…bfe7backed Yes71c710$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506.68552.9%45 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a0…9b7dbacked No58c688.71$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.431100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2a5…7d03backed No73c684$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42ee…b81cbacked No75c665.82$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes14c665.36$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.321250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea41…1c98backed Yes28c653$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8433337.5%125 W · 208 L+12.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes43c638.31$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1951138.7%198 W · 313 L+18.7wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb40…3612backed Yes14c632.97$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$869827.6%27 W · 71 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79eb…f471backed Yes25c592.42$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.722250%11 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+4.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes73c558.01$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.246743.3%29 W · 38 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb760…ccd7backed Yes47c547.59$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.746936.2%25 W · 44 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-20.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbac1…ce0ebacked No37c535.75$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.757445.9%34 W · 40 L+5.2wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+39.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No52c525.65$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.113438.2%13 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-28.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd578…d0ffbacked Yes39c519.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3072…8604backed No58c517.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.24425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-56.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes72c515.66$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.8331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8cc…5130backed Yes53c507.66$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.0340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x87c3…2945backed No35c500$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.03966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+37.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe709…9d39backed Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.52045%9 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Yes45c499.99$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2253748.6%18 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+22.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes73c499.97$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.4164339.3%253 W · 390 L-59.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid+8.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes4c478.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1129129.9%87 W · 204 L+21.5wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+30.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9fe9…e00ebacked No22c449.96$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5250…2772backed No66c436.31$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.233100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c9a…9c77backed No23c430.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.28366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+138.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9eea…281dbacked Yes33c423.84$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.832240.9%9 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No27c422.43$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.742120.9%88 W · 333 L-0.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-39.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No29c414.34$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.943036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd383…c77abacked Yes42c411.84$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1752450%12 W · 12 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3da…d974backed Yes61c404.42$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.57955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick42cpaid+46.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9437…6c5dbacked No55c397.87$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.293151.6%16 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5906…c04cbacked No54c394.4$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.2771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe03d…189abacked Yes77c390.13$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002065%13 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes70c388.17$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6217646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4e…1f10backed No27c376.96$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick30cpaid+177.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked No54c363.34$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.351040%4 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-35.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xea83…5c8fbacked No30c356.66$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.666254.8%34 W · 28 L+7.5wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+31.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes26c353.28$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.0826616.5%44 W · 222 L-24.7wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed No24c350.4$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.31833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes33c350$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.59846.9%46 W · 52 L+7.8wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+21.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5505…d7b8backed Yes14c330.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.89425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-68.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x411d…31edbacked Yes3c326.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a25…099dbacked No66c325.51$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.411833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.9wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-43.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x50b2…c94abacked Yes24c320.52$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.2416447.6%78 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac45…ea33backed No65c307.69$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed No66c305.09$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.22540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd273…03afbacked No26c302.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.27250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+88.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16d0…22b5backed No33c300.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.991060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid+11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.