Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b7dcf29ebedc9026bd69c104559adefba0f57b226f0d2b15ad49230ab477459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,531
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,895
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,531 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 335.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb980…f73bbacked No | 78c | 334.75$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78e1…2f80backed Yes | 12c | 153.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 9c | 144.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 22c | 99.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 20c | 94.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 21c | 88.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 79c | 85.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe452…4de3backed Yes | 26c | 74.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef1…baacbacked Yes | 21c | 73.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…32a3backed Yes | 19c | 68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 23c | 67.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 67.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.82 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 66.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.99 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 32c | 66.54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e1…f5a9backed No | 79c | 61.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 25c | 59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e5…1d85backed No | 76c | 58.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 29c | 55.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 28c | 52.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 22c | 52.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 51.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 74c | 49.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 80c | 48.35$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…cd5dbacked No | 76c | 47.34$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 79c | 42.58$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 28c | 41.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…2aa5backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 161 | 57.1%92 W · 69 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34f4…c629backed No | 77c | 33.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.69 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fe…74bcbacked Yes | 44c | 30.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 186 | 71%132 W · 54 L | +19.2wins | +0.10per pick | 61cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 26.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3172…e940backed No | 76c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x245e…eab4backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.19 | 85 | 74.1%63 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 77cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 73c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.