Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe44a60196fa8e3b6f8e25af86c417cbf14bf0dca6dd536e97b49b364e49aaaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,805
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 359.92$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.08 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc926…98c8backed Yes | 3c | 349.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 254.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…e878backed Yes | 25c | 246.37$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.49 | 237 | 43%102 W · 135 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 14c | 184.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 173.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 23c | 161.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.52 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 19c | 157.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.56 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 75c | 148.42$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 70c | 145.22$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.62 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 129.67$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 126.76$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 111.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 109.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 29c | 104.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8547…39abbacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 148 | 33.1%49 W · 99 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 24c | 91.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb387…4a00backed Yes | 23c | 85.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…43a8backed Yes | 24c | 75.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 123 | 17.9%22 W · 101 L | -10.0wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -35%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 75.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 19c | 73.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 68c | 73.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 68c | 69.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d37…cd5dbacked Yes | 32c | 59.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 76c | 58.35$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 23c | 56.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf79…7376backed Yes | 20c | 54.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 35c | 54.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x108f…7136backed Yes | 23c | 50.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…620cbacked No | 78c | 50.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -6.8wins | -0.12per pick | 73cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Yes | 23c | 47.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 71c | 40.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 71c | 36.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc416…3704backed Yes | 36c | 34.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked No | 79c | 33.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 33c | 31.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 78c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9e6cbacked No | 78c | 25.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 76c | 24.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc52f…0981backed No | 74c | 24.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 146 | 71.2%104 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 21.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 77c | 21.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 67c | 20.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9443…7c5dbacked No | 80c | 19.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed No | 78c | 18.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 18.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…245ebacked No | 76c | 15.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.77 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -8.2wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaae…1884backed No | 75c | 14.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c08…724fbacked No | 79c | 13.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01f2…c3debacked No | 78c | 13.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.89 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | -18.5wins | -0.15per pick | 53cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…d06abacked No | 80c | 12.64$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.53 | 212 | 72.6%154 W · 58 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.