Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa099742559ccc52968631e8288faa7d62f3b330be4de309e628c0164c1bb010
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 3c | 1,048$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 293.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 34c | 275.95$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 26c | 151.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 49c | 144.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.1 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc705…b62fbacked Yes | 66c | 115.23$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed No | 30c | 112.07$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 105.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 71c | 102.04$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 73c | 86.86$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 45c | 77.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 67c | 75.62$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 75.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 49c | 70.37$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.23 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 47c | 66.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 63.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 59c | 63.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.22 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 59c | 62.16$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9155…4511backed Yes | 32c | 58.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 31c | 58.16$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.88 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…4ac3backed Yes | 55c | 56.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.61 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +6.2wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 55c | 53.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb0…2b36backed Yes | 53c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a6…4ac1backed Yes | 41c | 45.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 32c | 43.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.79 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 57c | 43.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 69c | 42.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.38 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a66…8ce4backed Yes | 45c | 42.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 32c | 42.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 48c | 39.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 31c | 39.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.35 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 64c | 39.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.02 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 56c | 39.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 51c | 38.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 55c | 35.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 48c | 34.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3b…0353backed No | 64c | 33.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 48c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 41c | 31.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed No | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 51c | 26.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 43c | 26.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 57c | 24.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 57c | 22.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 59c | 19.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 70c | 18.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…ceebbacked Yes | 73c | 14.08$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.