TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe90a…07e8

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
134
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 53 out of 100; worst NHL at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT11636.2%42 W · 74 L-0.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-44.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 116 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.89
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+151.5%+$26.1
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.32
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.11
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.6
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$22.68
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$21.89
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$27.07
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.48
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.11
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$18.4
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.19
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.22
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$20.9
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.44
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$20.33
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.48
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.37
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$18.4
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$24
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.31
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.05
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$10.44
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C on April 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.49
Showing 25 of 116 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+186.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+186.6%+$43.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.49
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jul 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Steve Ballmer buy the Seattle Seahawks?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs L1ga Team - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Sabres vs. Rangers: O/U 7.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.