Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedd9faaa96ae2f00e92d3d59e19b75ccfbc388b5873ea419bf579dcc870d5fb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 10c | 5,463$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.23 | 180 | 26.1%47 W · 133 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 13c | 600$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.91 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…e495backed Yes | 15c | 456$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf110…7f8bbacked Yes | 15c | 456$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 9c | 348.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…0a37backed Yes | 15c | 347$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…7839backed Yes | 15c | 347$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d7…87c5backed Yes | 15c | 326$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e55…01bbbacked Yes | 15c | 326$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked Yes | 12c | 316.8$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…6f8fbacked Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ae…aa9bbacked Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c90…1b59backed Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe512…a0d3backed Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa345…f54dbacked Yes | 15c | 304$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2adb…3088backed Yes | 15c | 302.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d3…0560backed Yes | 15c | 285$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 9c | 216.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 5c | 215.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 173.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 12c | 134.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 13c | 125.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 73c | 117.22$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.17 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Yes | 11c | 94.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed Yes | 26c | 63.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Yes won
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.