Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbe08ec8bd0b841076cc5ec9c0a2299d180d4af07014c08c447000f6fcb85323f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 5c | 2,841$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.44 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -5.0wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0325…16e7backed No | 11c | 2,007$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,085$747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.33 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed No | 31c | 1,000$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 14c | 934$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.62 | 154 | 31.2%48 W · 106 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 26c | 917.99$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.66 | 334 | 21.9%73 W · 261 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 860.34$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 494 | 11.5%57 W · 437 L | -17.4wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9163…82aebacked No | 9c | 738.6$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.04 | 139 | 19.4%27 W · 112 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 68c | 662.86$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.44 | 228 | 48.7%111 W · 117 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 11c | 579.9$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.59 | 343 | 33.5%115 W · 228 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x039b…9b6cbacked No | 19c | 280$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 63c | 280$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.77 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 272.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 106 | 22.6%24 W · 82 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89a3…70c0backed No | 5c | 263.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +78.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced2…1076backed Yes | 73c | 259.7$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.91 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -53%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 25c | 244$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 15c | 206.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed No | 17c | 181.97$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.93 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 170$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.75 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 13c | 168.12$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 182 | 37.4%68 W · 114 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 13c | 163.79$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 332 | 38.6%128 W · 204 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 12c | 144.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 24c | 139.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.12 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 23c | 120.21$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc534…b734backed No | 24c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 22c | 115.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 18c | 115$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 70c | 110.01$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 21c | 106.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a8fdbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -60.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5446…18f6backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9448…b72ebacked No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7832…4ec9backed No | 14c | 94.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…0df3backed Yes | 68c | 90$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7105…b9bbbacked No | 30c | 90$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…99ddbacked No | 35c | 83$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e0…016abacked No | 22c | 81.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 29cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74aa…2c3fbacked No | 22c | 81.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed No | 34c | 81$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 37c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed No | 30c | 79.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 314 | 34.1%107 W · 207 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 65.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 27c | 64.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -7.0wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 17c | 59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c71…9338backed No | 22c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -7.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 51cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 66c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x211b…1872backed No | 37c | 33.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x698a…3bedbacked No | 36c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189a…c2dbbacked Yes | 78c | 15.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…ba00backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.