TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,685
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,221

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,685 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5529…e5b9backed Yes28c1,170$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.0522948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf7f…f745backed No43c1,025$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.63862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick41cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x451a…a0c9backed Yes56c998$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$558.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d9…bacbbacked No44c906$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$507.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+47.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed Yes57c850$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.31per pick43cpaid-83.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x163a…70a2backed Yes41c781$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes55c745$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.75837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c7…f199backed No46c737$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick27cpaid+219.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x29b4…c17abacked Yes56c721$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403.76812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-83.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes41c703$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.23250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf75c…838dbacked No55c688$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.41per pick34cpaid+202%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x14d4…cc6fbacked No44c683$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.481241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-32.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed No44c651$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.561050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b02…a23bbacked No45c617$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.351060%6 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked No44c609$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.04955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked No59c603$356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed No59c558$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.78633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes45c552$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+32.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc9…5856backed Yes56c542$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303.52742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ea7…2550backed Yes56c534$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.04757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No51c497$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.2824861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Yes56c491$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.96425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-34.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes57c487$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.59366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes54c484$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.3650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed No44c459$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.04650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb85b…77dbbacked No43c439$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.23540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes45c434$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb88…6b99backed No44c424$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.44757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+82.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes56c416$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.961723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick40cpaid-44.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x809a…f315backed Yes56c410$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.6742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed Yes56c391$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.961030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-56.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7176…6f9fbacked No44c391$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.96683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.0wins+0.33per pick50cpaid+67.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf25d…8b1ebacked No44c385$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.6850%4 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+50.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes57c384.02$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.082623.1%6 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-55.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes56c374$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.44450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+72.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd27d…fa96backed Yes6c356.75$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No44c354$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.24944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-12.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeac…95c6backed No52c345$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.621258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No55c324$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick59cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5214…95c9backed No44c319$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.64650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5bc…2ad5backed No46c319$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.26650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick35cpaid+43.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e42…a043backed Yes4c317.42$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-46.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed No44c308$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-39.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes16c300$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x997f…b3c2backed Yes56c249$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x130f…fc43backed Yes54c247$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.38366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes56c230$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.8944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes56c227$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.12616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-63%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa647…d77dbacked Yes56c223$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.881936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-30.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed No44c215$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.4540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0327…5e15backed Yes5c211$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.551241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed Yes56c210$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.6425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f4…0430backed Yes55c207$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.85520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No55c200$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-27.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes54c199$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4660%0 W · 6 L-2.9wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2795…6811backed No57c182$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.26785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.30per pick56cpaid+102%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x708a…68b9backed Yes41c181$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.21714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.31per pick46cpaid-78%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed No55c180$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-48.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed No45c179$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.45837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed No59c178$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+180.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5884…3191backed Yes56c175$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked No44c163$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-43.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4516…ea0ebacked No44c159$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.041070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81ba…b311backed Yes42c158$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.36837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes11c152.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8322833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9acc…42cebacked Yes21c150$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.211921.1%4 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick32cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e4…09dcbacked No59c150$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.5633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+11.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c146.74$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9866914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x8465…6cd7backed No59c145$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.452100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef14…bf21backed Yes43c144$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.92450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes41c142$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.22633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-33.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes25c132$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca67…2648backed Yes41c132$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.121145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed No43c131$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.67650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No68c123$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8745035.1%158 W · 292 L-37.8wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x86b1…7e89backed Yes20c121$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes39c112$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.0850%0 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x146a…2ec4backed Yes21c109.63$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…8ab8backed No59c109$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+131%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes13c107.56$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8318310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes51c102.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.3916632.5%54 W · 112 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31a8…1f07backed No59c101$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.411050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a25…8055backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-77.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3811backed No59c99$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.592100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+234.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe37a…3192backed No62c90$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bfa…3888backed No57c83$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.69955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick44cpaid-2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x677e…5d5abacked Yes12c81$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.11425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-58%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dfa…f03dbacked Yes48c73.87$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c70.68$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.7834129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6317…e864backed Yes56c70$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.21258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0f5…b750backed Yes42c69$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.98650%3 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+86.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes54c67$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick59cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2232…a794backed No44c67$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.52425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-43.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e47…db27backed Yes43c66$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.38862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes20c66$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.19646.9%45 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes18c60.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.967524%18 W · 57 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick17cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd10…99b9backed Yes49c58.02$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked Yes56c56$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.361258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Yes43c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+55.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.