Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23138fc034c49853887431d6009400c26dbfb09525e0edc80878c218d19e28e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,685
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,221
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,685 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5529…e5b9backed Yes | 28c | 1,170$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.05 | 229 | 48.9%112 W · 117 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 43c | 1,025$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.63 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…a0c9backed Yes | 56c | 998$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked No | 44c | 906$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.36 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 57c | 850$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x163a…70a2backed Yes | 41c | 781$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 55c | 745$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…f199backed No | 46c | 737$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 27cpaid | +219.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…c17abacked Yes | 56c | 721$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.76 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.29per pick | 41cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3f…6e13backed Yes | 41c | 703$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf75c…838dbacked No | 55c | 688$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +202%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14d4…cc6fbacked No | 44c | 683$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.48 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf955…bb33backed No | 44c | 651$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…a23bbacked No | 45c | 617$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.35 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa938…a1ffbacked No | 44c | 609$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb214…a6aabacked No | 59c | 603$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 59c | 558$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked Yes | 45c | 552$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadc9…5856backed Yes | 56c | 542$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea7…2550backed Yes | 56c | 534$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 497$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.28 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…e62fbacked Yes | 56c | 491$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d4…8cf7backed Yes | 57c | 487$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f68…21ecbacked Yes | 54c | 484$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.36 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246f…0ab2backed No | 44c | 459$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.04 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb85b…77dbbacked No | 43c | 439$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked Yes | 45c | 434$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…6b99backed No | 44c | 424$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +82.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe87e…4f70backed Yes | 56c | 416$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x809a…f315backed Yes | 56c | 410$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad90…9090backed Yes | 56c | 391$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7176…6f9fbacked No | 44c | 391$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.96 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.33per pick | 50cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf25d…8b1ebacked No | 44c | 385$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.6 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 57c | 384.02$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.08 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d26…c9f4backed Yes | 56c | 374$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…fa96backed Yes | 6c | 356.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e2…4c8bbacked No | 44c | 354$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeac…95c6backed No | 52c | 345$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcabd…3764backed No | 55c | 324$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5214…95c9backed No | 44c | 319$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed No | 46c | 319$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e42…a043backed Yes | 4c | 317.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x290d…9e42backed No | 44c | 308$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…b3c2backed Yes | 56c | 249$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x130f…fc43backed Yes | 54c | 247$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…c4e8backed Yes | 56c | 230$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…e98bbacked Yes | 56c | 227$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa647…d77dbacked Yes | 56c | 223$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.88 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aca…cad6backed No | 44c | 215$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 5c | 211$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaae6…3d05backed Yes | 56c | 210$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f4…0430backed Yes | 55c | 207$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5395…9d41backed Yes | 54c | 199$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.9wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2795…6811backed No | 57c | 182$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 56cpaid | +102%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 41c | 181$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.21 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7c…51b6backed No | 55c | 180$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8151…3421backed No | 45c | 179$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x319c…4a94backed No | 59c | 178$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 56c | 175$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4559…f02bbacked No | 44c | 163$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 44c | 159$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.04 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 42c | 158$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes | 11c | 152.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 228 | 33.8%77 W · 151 L | +13.7wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 21c | 150$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.21 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked No | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 22c | 146.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8465…6cd7backed No | 59c | 145$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…bf21backed Yes | 43c | 144$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed Yes | 41c | 142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 25c | 132$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…2648backed Yes | 41c | 132$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9964backed No | 43c | 131$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 123$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.87 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…7e89backed Yes | 20c | 121$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 39c | 112$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x146a…2ec4backed Yes | 21c | 109.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +131%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 13c | 107.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 183 | 10.4%19 W · 164 L | -9.7wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 51c | 102.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.39 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31a8…1f07backed No | 59c | 101$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 104 | 2.9%3 W · 101 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed No | 59c | 99$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 40cpaid | +234.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…3192backed No | 62c | 90$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfa…3888backed No | 57c | 83$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677e…5d5abacked Yes | 12c | 81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…f03dbacked Yes | 48c | 73.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 29c | 70.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…b750backed Yes | 42c | 69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 54c | 67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2232…a794backed No | 44c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e47…db27backed Yes | 43c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 96 | 46.9%45 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 18c | 60.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…99b9backed Yes | 49c | 58.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636a…09aabacked Yes | 56c | 56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e5…d252backed Yes | 43c | 55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Yes won
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.