Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde07228f2e6db44b37afae1059d2dd13aca52c0803bcc2b67d874a5b39d85ee1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,645
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 52c | 289$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 248 | 61.7%153 W · 95 L | +24.3wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes | 61c | 267.18$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.33 | 165 | 44.2%73 W · 92 L | +10.8wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 23c | 214$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 7c | 164.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 104 | 1%1 W · 103 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 17c | 150$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 52c | 136.06$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.39 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | -11.4wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…efafbacked Yes | 50c | 110$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -6.6wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c14…0869backed Yes | 52c | 89$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.88 | 107 | 40.2%43 W · 64 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 16c | 84.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 495 | 11.5%57 W · 438 L | -17.6wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 83 | 43.4%36 W · 47 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…01cbbacked Yes | 37c | 52.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 53c | 52.43$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x420e…e3c9backed Yes | 47c | 49.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8005…d173backed Yes | 53c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 50c | 46.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed No | 48c | 33.43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7efb…68a1backed No | 58c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…d2afbacked Yes | 45c | 25.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f9…adb9backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 30cpaid | +194.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f7…536bbacked Yes | 55c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bf…45bdbacked Yes | 62c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Yes won
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.