Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x571b1bdc7322dcc3e6be4347fa7efbea43e1487bb4888830b84559cb3355fe01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x29a9…d4f7backed Yes | 17c | 909$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.53 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -57%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1897…c285backed Yes | 17c | 836$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6499…05d2backed Yes | 17c | 750$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb25c…6d89backed Yes | 18c | 539$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…75e7backed Yes | 17c | 447$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5884…3191backed Yes | 17c | 424$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.08 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c07…956bbacked Yes | 17c | 382$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.94 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ff…b38fbacked Yes | 18c | 367$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…dcb1backed Yes | 17c | 343$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f5…d7aabacked Yes | 17c | 325$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 17c | 303$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…aa71backed Yes | 11c | 281$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36b0…f5bebacked Yes | 17c | 248$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.16 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…0cbcbacked Yes | 17c | 227$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 54cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 13c | 188.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.19 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes | 11c | 173$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +68.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…f03dbacked Yes | 12c | 148.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 8c | 145.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f52…a35abacked Yes | 18c | 137$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…d3aabacked Yes | 11c | 128$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x708a…68b9backed Yes | 11c | 125$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.31per pick | 46cpaid | -78%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 17c | 124$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…3c30backed Yes | 17c | 121$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.31per pick | 43cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes | 18c | 76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10d8…9f12backed Yes | 17c | 65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Yes won
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.