Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7746b132411eaddfa8459cdd260d3fcf486507536421ea2a50fff7df17f8db24
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,656
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,656 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 1,511$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.76 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,267$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffff…35bebacked No | 80c | 959$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +65.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x987e…990dbacked No | 80c | 879$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 19c | 860$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.29per pick | 47cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf738…56bdbacked No | 77c | 782$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.86 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6578…ba32backed Yes | 19c | 699$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0af…7ec6backed Yes | 20c | 693$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12e3…dbd4backed No | 78c | 633$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88f1…8e46backed Yes | 20c | 578$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fbf…7328backed Yes | 20c | 515$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2bb…4569backed No | 80c | 507$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb767…9b51backed Yes | 19c | 498$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5bc…2ad5backed Yes | 23c | 495$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5322…95e1backed No | 80c | 482$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d5…f2c6backed Yes | 15c | 470.49$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.62 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…cfc1backed Yes | 19c | 455$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 13c | 405.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 6c | 392.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa488…f562backed Yes | 20c | 381$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 3c | 379.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 7c | 373.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.07 | 182 | 3.8%7 W · 175 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7485…b217backed Yes | 19c | 367$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…bdf1backed Yes | 23c | 360$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce4d…d0e2backed Yes | 3c | 349.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 74 | 37.8%28 W · 46 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5d…4e58backed Yes | 22c | 349$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +88.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98f…5afdbacked Yes | 19c | 335$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a7…6569backed No | 80c | 288$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95cc…f215backed Yes | 22c | 284$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.48 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2145…1e5dbacked Yes | 19c | 230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d9…bacbbacked Yes | 21c | 222$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 42cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd719…d8e5backed No | 80c | 209$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed Yes | 20c | 207$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4516…ea0ebacked No | 78c | 201$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.76 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…ee62backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 15c | 195.17$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 166 | 32.5%54 W · 112 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fd…a3e1backed Yes | 20c | 186$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e17…c6b5backed Yes | 20c | 169$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc336…9f48backed Yes | 22c | 166$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6317…e864backed No | 80c | 164$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b2…9ae2backed Yes | 19c | 157$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91ba…c705backed No | 80c | 156$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5544…802abacked No | 79c | 153$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acc…42cebacked Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4faa…fecfbacked Yes | 19c | 149$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed Yes | 21c | 143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.03 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +64.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf298…12f8backed Yes | 19c | 140$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa400…ec34backed No | 78c | 136$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dfa…f03dbacked Yes | 13c | 125.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…473bbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…395ebacked No | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa232…175fbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe47d…907bbacked No | 79c | 107$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf40b…7181backed Yes | 20c | 98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe918…d166backed No | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb547…a237backed Yes | 22c | 96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc5…d5f6backed Yes | 20c | 93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d3…53dcbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde23…62e9backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a55…1272backed Yes | 20c | 86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea1…6487backed No | 80c | 85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe53d…8ab8backed No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +131%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5880…a675backed Yes | 21c | 81$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ba…b311backed Yes | 22c | 79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79a1…2d87backed No | 77c | 73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…a64bbacked No | 78c | 72$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8d…8ad4backed No | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…7602backed Yes | 20c | 66$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 40cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x06cd…e124backed No | 80c | 61$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.35per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 20c | 61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee4e…aa5abacked No | 80c | 59$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc895…9bfabacked Yes | 21c | 59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a7a9backed Yes | 20c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb890…a592backed Yes | 19c | 55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f91…d531backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e4…09dcbacked Yes | 21c | 49$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…d215backed No | 80c | 24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +150.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5243…a73cbacked No | 79c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sandy Spidel Neumann be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?this page
- Will Adam Hamilton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?Yes won
- Will Anne Parelkar be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Christy Davis be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Michael Soetaert be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Noah Taylor be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
- Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.