Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcde2d46084911acb4db367d8b545eaaa299cddc292615d32f5a13045c76d11e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 18c | 991.32$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.35 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 78c | 761.21$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.56 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 59c | 337.97$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.57 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 42c | 234.75$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.06 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 39c | 132.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.29 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 38c | 108.07$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 94.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 89.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 79.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 60c | 79.36$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 31c | 76.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa868…add8backed Yes | 40c | 69.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 70c | 68.79$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 65.54$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 77c | 63.44$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322c…1366backed Yes | 38c | 61.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 35cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 67c | 55.77$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 66c | 52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 40c | 51.71$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.73 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 51.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 69c | 49.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 41c | 47.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 46.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 39c | 41.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7650…5099backed Yes | 25c | 40.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 41c | 40.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 38.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 41c | 37.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…6969backed Yes | 38c | 35.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x958a…9f65backed No | 75c | 33.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 558 | 55.2%308 W · 250 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…cb41backed Yes | 45c | 31.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 62c | 30.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 44c | 30.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65b7…ee5dbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…640cbacked Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 63c | 26.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 66c | 25.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.67 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 23.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 61c | 17.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 9°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.