Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59f5f099acda1c310535e7ada071d50df32bdf866bde4608d1c870596f2d98d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,064
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93b3…dc40backed No | 2c | 983.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 14c | 438.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…76a5backed Yes | 70c | 326.58$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.6 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 6c | 312.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc76…b8cfbacked Yes | 77c | 262.35$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.48 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 43c | 245.47$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 44c | 233.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.92 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 148.27$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d41…24d7backed Yes | 76c | 100.81$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -9.0wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 55c | 91.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 66c | 87.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.57 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 46c | 86.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.61 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 77.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 51c | 75.01$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.22 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 17c | 74.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 53c | 70.16$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a00…5ffcbacked Yes | 52c | 65.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.39 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 55c | 54.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27dd…b696backed Yes | 48c | 51.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.12 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 79c | 49.84$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 65c | 49.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 47c | 47.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.1 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 44c | 44.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 36c | 42.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 52c | 42.57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 48c | 35.84$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 49c | 30.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 29.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 48c | 29.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…4bcdbacked Yes | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 57c | 28.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 53c | 28.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabee…ab7dbacked No | 55c | 26.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 52c | 24.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 49c | 23.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 76c | 20.54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffa2…1c7fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 53c | 19.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 74c | 19.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.