Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74e3763f60a9bb19a610ce9b045d56b9177501bd62d4a60537a1b58f6b4b6d3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 15c | 718.49$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed No | 6c | 472.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 55c | 431.22$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.8 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 419.32$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.54 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 46c | 351.61$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b85…a3e9backed Yes | 55c | 339.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 331.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 67c | 297.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.63 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4414…d74cbacked No | 4c | 295.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…9a6abacked Yes | 48c | 264.05$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.17 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 46c | 243.28$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd2…b7f8backed Yes | 56c | 220.52$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.11 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 42c | 202.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 43c | 190.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.13 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 46c | 188.33$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.77 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 52c | 180.47$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.89 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 168.78$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc97…da82backed Yes | 52c | 163.86$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.6 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 45c | 150$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 37c | 144.92$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.87 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 45c | 139.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.2 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 45c | 130.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.73 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 57c | 125.03$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.8 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 78c | 124.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa74…6bcbbacked No | 34c | 123.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 180 | 41.1%74 W · 106 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 33c | 118.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.56 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8887…681bbacked Yes | 71c | 117.32$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 45c | 116.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked Yes | 52c | 113.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e22…dca9backed Yes | 44c | 106.94$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbce1…712bbacked Yes | 44c | 106.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.32 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 53c | 104.74$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 25c | 102.06$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb7…61e9backed No | 20c | 100.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 240 | 10%24 W · 216 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 45c | 100.51$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 99.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc501…d0f1backed Yes | 41c | 99.46$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed Yes | 51c | 98.98$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.33 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…b168backed Yes | 54c | 95.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 112 | 49.1%55 W · 57 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f04…b5a1backed No | 21c | 92.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 75c | 92.28$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed Yes | 38c | 92.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc245…bccbbacked No | 47c | 90.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0be4…2ed6backed Yes | 73c | 90.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 45c | 80.06$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.15 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x261e…c09fbacked Yes | 42c | 75.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 118 | 35.6%42 W · 76 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 56c | 73.88$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.53 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0675…1ec0backed Yes | 31c | 73.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 55c | 72.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…45acbacked No | 50c | 72.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…1a57backed Yes | 47c | 70.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…0734backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…268fbacked No | 44c | 67.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…5882backed Yes | 54c | 67.42$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.01 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfde1…914bbacked Yes | 54c | 67.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 58c | 64.64$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 52c | 64.35$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 62.53$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 49c | 61.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.55 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 55c | 60.14$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 41c | 58.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391a…9d8fbacked Yes | 32c | 57.5$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.86 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90a…07e8backed No | 63c | 57.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 43c | 56.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…b3e4backed No | 61c | 51.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bd…8b8cbacked Yes | 47c | 50.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…0b53backed No | 29c | 50.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1638…26b7backed No | 62c | 49.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 38c | 49.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9480…6797backed Yes | 51c | 49.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 52c | 47.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…e744backed Yes | 45c | 47.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.99 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 57c | 47.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 47.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 54c | 46.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7550…60f9backed No | 51c | 45.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 44c | 45.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 44c | 45.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.21 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 44.7$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc423…2ccdbacked Yes | 53c | 44.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.8 | 524 | 44.1%231 W · 293 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 68c | 44.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…bc29backed No | 56c | 43.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 146 | 66.4%97 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 45c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 44c | 42.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 40.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9a…371abacked Yes | 47c | 40.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f6…85e9backed No | 49c | 38.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes | 49c | 38.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0235…38d5backed Yes | 50c | 38.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 54c | 38.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 44c | 38.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 59c | 37.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 44c | 36.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 44c | 36.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.